Alabama Opens as Massive 17-Point Favorites vs Texas A&M at College Station
- Unbeaten Alabama is a huge favorite on the road at Texas A&M in Week 7
- The Crimson Tide are ranked #1 but don’t have a ton of margin for error
- Is there more value in backing ‘Bama or taking the points when it comes to the early point spread?
The #1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0, 2-0 SEC) are 17-point favorites on the road at #24 Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 SEC) on Saturday (Oct. 12, 3:30 PM ET).
Alabama is on its way to 13 or 14 (or possibly 15) victories. How do we know? The Tide have won at least 13 games in each of the last four seasons, and since the start of the 2008 campaign are 144-15. But that doesn’t mean Alabama will cover. The Tide are 2-3 ATS this year after going 8-7 last year, and 6-8 two years ago. In other words, everybody knows how good they are.
As for Texas A&M, they are 3-2 straight up and against the number this season. The Sagarin rankings tell us the spread ought to be around 15 on Saturday. There will always be a penalty for betting the best teams, but do you want to back the Aggies?
As we look closely at the odds for this matchup, it is worth considering what the teams have traditionally done against each other, and how bettors may be looking at the match-up.
Alabama vs. Texas A&M Odds
| Team | Odds | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -17 (-110) | Over 59.5 (-110) |
| Texas A&M | +17 (-110) | Under 59.5 (-110) |
*Odds taken 10/07/19.
Alabama is 9-2 all time against the Aggies and have won six straight. Last year in Tuscaloosa, the final was 45-23. Two years ago in College Station, the Tide won 27-19. During the six straight Crimson Tide wins, Alabama has won by an average margin of 22.2 points. Texas A&M is 0-4 against Alabama at home.
Alabama’s Outlook
This is Alabama’s second true road game of the season. They beat Duke to start the year at a neutral site, 42-3, and won at South Carolina, 47-23, in Week 3. The Tide notched a pair of non-conference home victories against New Mexico State and Southern Miss easily, and two weeks ago took care of Ole Miss, 59-31. Alabama was off last Saturday.
Nick Saban’s squad ranks third in the country in total offense and has turned the ball over just three times in five games. They are averaging 51.8 points a game with the passing game generating more than 380 yards per contest.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has completed better than 76% of his passes and fired for 23 touchdowns this season. He is responsible for an NCAA-high 30 points a game thus far and is the favorite for the 2019 Heisman Trophy.
Both Devonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy are top 20 in the NCAA in receiving yards, and they have caught eight and six touchdown passes, respectively.
While it is possible Alabama is vulnerable, we have not seen that thus far. It is true their defensive rankings are not great, but they haven’t been put in a tight spot yet either.
Texas A&M’s Outlook
Like the Crimson Tide, Texas A&M is returning from a week off. The Aggies have wins this season at home over Texas State (41-7), Lamar (62-3), and Arkansas (31-27). They lost at Clemson (24-10) and in College Station to Auburn (28-20).
The Aggies are pretty strong defensively, particularly against the pass. They are top 20 in the country in pass efficiency defense, interceptions, and third-down stops. On the flip side, they have struggled to run the ball, and have committed nine turnovers already this year.
The QB/WR connection between Kellen Mond and Jhamon Ausbon has been a potent one for the Aggies. Quartney Davis has proven to be a real threat on the outside too. Unlike Alabama, Texas A&M does a few things well, but their deficiencies are clear too.
The Play
This comes down to the spread. Texas A&M probably can’t win and the public is going to be all over Alabama. The number is likely to creep up as the week moves along, and if it does not, that is a strong indication professional bettors are keen on the Aggies.
If you like the Crimson Tide, play them ASAP. If you want Texas A&M, wait and see if the spread goes up a point or two.
It is hard to wager on the clearly inferior squad, but Alabama’s one true road game was closer than expected, and the Aggies are better than South Carolina. While Alabama has been amazing over the last decade, they are just average against the spread. Meanwhile, Texas A&M was 9-4 for betting purposes last year in Jimbo Fisher’s first season on the sidelines.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
