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Alabama vs LSU Odds, Lines, Picks and Predictions

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Nov 3, 2022 · 10:44 PM PDT

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels celebrates after scoring a touchdown
Quarterback Jayden Daniels celebrates after scoring a touchdown as the LSU Tigers take on the Ole Miss Rebels at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA.Saturday October 22, 2022 Lsu Vs Ole Miss Football V1 7401
  • No. 6 Alabama visits No. 10 LSU in a pivotal SEC West game on Saturday, November 5.
  • Alabama opened as a 12.5-point road favorite and was bet up to 13.5.
  • Read below for Alabama vs LSU odds, analysis and prediction

No. 6 Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC) is a 13.5-point road favorite against LSU in a game for first place in the SEC West at 7 pm ET Saturday on ESPN. The winner will gain at least a share of first place in the SEC West with No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1, 4-1), who is idle this week.

No. 15 LSU (6-2, 4-1) has won six of its last seven since a season-opening loss to Florida State, and the Tigers would gain a tie-breaker advantage over both Alabama and Ole Miss with a victory. The Bayou Bengals beat Ole Miss 45-20 in their last game Oct. 22.

Alabama vs LSU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5 (-110) -520 Over 56.5 (-110)
LSU Tigers +13.5 (-110) +410 Under 56.5 (-110)

Odds from DraftKings on Nov. 2. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code for Bama vs LSU.

Both teams enter the rivalry game after a bye. The Crimson Tide is 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS after a week off since 2014, with five byes coming before the LSU game. The Tide is 1-0-1 ATS in the two games played in Baton Rouge during that streak. LSU is 4-1 SU and 5-0 after a bye since 2019, 2-0 ATS against Alabama with both games in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers covered as a 29-point underdog in a 20-14 loss at Alabama last season.

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Alabama is 10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS in the yearly series since its 21-0 victory in the 2011 BCS title game, a loss that spoiled LSU’s undefeated season. Both teams are 5-3 ATS this season. LSU is 4-2 ATS at home and Alabama is 1-2 ATS on the road. The Tide beat then-No. 24 Mississippi State 30-6 in its last game Oct. 22.

The total has gone under in four of the last six games in the series and in five of the last six games at LSU.

Alabama Opens Must-Win Stretch

No. 6 Alabama begins a series of must-win games against the Bayou Bengals if it is to take what has become its traditional place in the CFP Final Four after the initial rankings were released Tuesday.

The Tide has made the last two Final Fours, four of the last five and seven of the eight since the system was adopted in 2014, and it remains a favorite to make the 2022 Final Four in the college football playoff odds. As fate would have it, the only time Alabama was left out was in 2019, when LSU won the regular-season meeting 46-41 en route to a 42-25 victory over Clemson in the national championship game.

Quarterback Bryce Young is still Bryce Young. He has completed 66 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions, and after returning from a shoulder injury had an inspired game at Tennessee. He threw for 452 yards and two touchdowns against the Vols, but the Tide defense was torched for 556 yards in a 52-49 loss.

The defense recovered the last time out, holding then-No. 24 Mississippi State and prolific quarterback Will Rogers scoreless until the final play of the game in a 30-6 victory. They sacked Rogers four times.

Alabama struggled to move the ball against the Bulldogs, however. Young, who has fallen in this year’s Heisman Trophy odds, passed for 249 yards and two touchdowns, but the ground game led by Jahmyr Gibbs stalled. Gibbs had 37 yards rushing, but because of sacks and a fumble the Tide had only 29 yards rushing as a team.

The Tide defensive line may be closer to health here. Senior defensive tackle DJ Dale and freshman nose tackle Jaheim Oatis are day-to-day with undisclosed injuries after missing the Mississippi State game. although coach Nick Saban said he expects at least one to play. Oatis has 20 tackles and one of the Tide’s 23 sacks. Dale has two sacks.

QB Daniels Sparks LSU

Quarterback Jayden Daniels has had an accurate, dual-threat season after transferring from Arizona State. Daniels accounted for five touchdowns, three passing, when the Bayou Bengals overcame a 14-point deficit in a 45-20 victory over Ole Miss the last time out. He passed for 349 yards and accounted for all six touchdowns — three passing, three rushing — in a 45-35 victory over Florida on Oct. 15.

Daniels has 1,812 yards passing and 524 yards rushing, which is fifth among Division I quarterbacks, and he has thrown only one interception in 236 attempts. He is on pace for career marks in both categories after being a four-year starter at Arizona State.  He had another big game against Mississippi State, when he had 309 passing/rushing yards and two touchdowns when LSU overcome a 13-0 deficit in 31-16 win. 17.

Daniels has nine rushing touchdowns, a school record for quarterbacks, and the Tigers seem certain to surpass their projection in the CFB win totals odds. Reserve running back John Emery Jr. is questionable with an Achilles injury.

Alabama vs LSU Prediction

The Crimson Tide and Tigers have played two common opponents, losing to Tennessee and beating Mississippi State. Alabama was a larger favorite and had an easier time in both game, hence the spread, but LSU’s offense is more than capable of keeping up with Young and the Tide.

  • Pick: LSU +13.5 (-110)
  • Season: 28-30 ATS 

 

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