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Auburn vs Ole Miss Odds and Picks

Chris Hatfield

by Chris Hatfield in College Football

Updated Oct 27, 2021 · 8:30 AM PDT

Corral in the pocket
Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral (2) passes against LSU during the first half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Oxford, Miss., Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. Mississippi won 31-17. (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)
  • Auburn and Ole Miss face each other in a critical SEC West matchup on Saturday night
  • The Tigers haven’t lost to the Rebels since 2016
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a pick on the game

#18 Auburn (5-2) will look to reset it’s focus after a drama-filled week when it hosts Ole Miss (6-1) in a pivotal SEC clash. The game will be televised on ESPN at 7:00pm EST.

Auburn Head Coach Bryan Harsin grabbed headlines this week with his comments about vaccinations. Yet, on the field it does appear that his team is finally hitting its stride. The Tigers are coming off a big 38-23 win over Arkansas before their idle week, and will look to continue to build on that.

For Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss, things have been a little bumpy but they’ve continued to rack up wins. The Rebels are in the midst of a three-game winning straight including a 31-17 win over LSU last week. While they’ve been impressive, they do have some injuries that are starting to add up. Its depth will be tested the deeper into the season we go.

Auburn vs Ole Miss Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Ole Miss +2.5 (-110) +120 U 66 (-110)
Auburn -2.5 (-110) -140 O 66 (-110)

Odds via Draftkings on October 27th

After opening as a pick em game, Auburn has moved to 2.5-point home favorites at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Which Version of Bo Nix Shows Up?

The story of Auburn’s season directly follows the path of it’s quarterback play. Early in the season Nix was bad enough against Georgia State to get pulled by Head Coach Bryan Harsin. In that same breath, he was good enough to grab road wins at Arkansas and LSU.

Which Bo Nix shows up each week for Auburn? The most difficult thing this season for Auburn has been predicting that. When Nix has been good, he has been great. Against Arkansas, he threw for 292 yards on 21-of -26 passing and added in two touchdowns. He posted a QBR of 192.8. That happened to be one of the highest QBRs of the week. It’s also one of the highest ones I’ve seen this season in a road performance.

As you can see above, he posted the highest Expected Points Per play of any Power Five Quarterback as well. Is he turning the corner? Frankly, I believe so.

Arkansas happens to be the second best passing defense in the SEC behind Georgia. In virtually every metric, you can find the Razorbacks second fiddle to the Bulldogs. For instance, they’ve allowed an impressive 6.6 yards per play to opposing Quarterbacks. Nix nearly doubled that with 11.2 yards per play. Posting that road performance, on the heels of a satisfactory performance against Georgia, says to me something is working.

I expect to see “better Bo” for the rest of the season. And while he will have to make some big throws on Saturday, I think the key for Auburn will be how well it can run the ball.

Ole Miss Rushing Defense Has Been an Issue

Each time someone talks about the Rebels, they talk about the offense and how impressive Quarterback Matt Corral has been – and for good reason. The Rebels put up points in bunches. They do that very quickly, and are generally one the most exciting teams in College Football to watch.

But as they’ve gotten deeper into conference play, something has started to rear its ugly head. That’s the Ole Miss Rushing defense.

There are a few places where Vanderbilt ranks ahead of Ole Miss. This is one of them. Ole Miss is giving up 181 yards per game – ten more than Vanderbilt – ranking them second to last in the SEC. Of course, there is a big drop off to Missouri after that but not many in the Country have been as bad as them.

While the defense was better against LSU last week, it’s hard for me to put much stock into that. LSU appears to be a team that is playing out the string of the rest of its season with its Head Coach already fired. I’m not even sure they make a bowl game.

Before last week, Ole Miss had given up over 200 yards on the ground to every SEC Opponent. Let me say that again, before last week they had given up over 200 yards to EVERY SEC Opponent. That includes 350 yards to Arkansas two weeks ago.

Some times stats need no commentary after them. This is one of those times.

Auburn vs Ole Miss Prediction

Auburn is going to run the ball down Ole Miss’ throats and I’m not sure they’ll be able to do much about it. The Tigers rank second in the SEC in yards per carry with 5.7 yards each time a running back touches the ball. That’s comfortably ahead of the aforementioned Arkansas. Some of the deeper numbers suggest that this could actually be the best rushing offense in the entire Conference.

The Tigers defense has been average, but I don’t think it needs to be great on Saturday. It just needs to make a few plays while it’s offense controls the clock. I think it will.

  • Pick: Parlay of Auburn ML + over 66 (+227) and a standalone play of Auburn ML (-140)
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