Auburn’s Gus Malzahn Favored to be 1st SEC Coach Fired in 2019 NCAAF Season

• Auburn was a disappointing 8-5 in 2018
• Arkansas went 0-8 in the SEC in Chad Morris’ first year as head coach
• Many coaches in the conference are on long-term contracts with high guaranteed salaries

College football season is still months away but that hasn’t stopped sportsbooks from grabbing our attention with this interesting prop bet.  Which SEC coach will be the first to get fired in the 2019 season?

Which SEC Coach Will Be Fired 1st in 2019?

The odds say it’s a two-horse race between Gus Malzahn at Auburn and Chad Morris at Arkansas.  While both probably deserve to get the hook early if things go sideways, here’s the case that the value bet is to fade those coaches and look elsewhere in the conference.

Money Matters In The SEC

The SEC likes to pay their coaches handsomely and that often creates issues when looking to move on.  Boosters are happy to sign over their hard-earned money to watch a team on the field having success, but when the payments are being made to a coach sitting at home or, worse yet, at another program, that’s a tougher pill to swallow.

Chad Morris is entering year two of a six-year, $21 million contract at Arkansas.  His team was winless in the conference in 2018 and doesn’t project to be much better next year, but there’s too much money left on the deal to do much about it.  Expect him to remain with the Razorbacks under the idea that maybe, with his own recruits in place, they can turn things around.

Every day counts on the last day! ?#WPS #HammerDown pic.twitter.com/v8A7iMfYzi

— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) March 9, 2019

The only thing different in Malzahn’s case is the contract is longer and worth even more money.  After the 2017 season, he signed a seven-year, $49 million extension. There is a lot of life left on that deal.

Again, it’s tough to imagine Tiger boosters paying that big of a ticket for a coach to watch from his couch, even if they are tired of losing games to Alabama and  the other elite programs in the conference.

It’s going to be a great day!#WarEagle pic.twitter.com/NMOq2V2Hls

— Coach Gus Malzahn (@CoachGusMalzahn) February 6, 2019

Elsewhere in the SEC, Derek Mason signed a contract extension with Vanderbilt and Ed Orgeron is reportedly in talks with LSU.  The contract statuses seem to make what is likely to be the least popular pick on the board, the one that provides the best value.

SEC is the Conference of Job Security

At +400, you have the option “No Firings By January 1, 2020” and that is actually the best bet on the board.  Will teams be bad in the SEC? Sure, there are always bad teams.  But with some high salaries protecting coaches and what seems to be an inevitability to Alabama’s greatness, the appetite to make moves seems to be quieter than ever before.

Will Muschamp and Matt Luke are interesting plays with longer odds, but this bet that it’ll be all quiet on the Southeastern front appears to offer the most value.