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Ball State vs Georgia State Camellia Bowl Odds, Picks and Preview

David Rooney

by David Rooney in College Football

Updated Dec 24, 2021 · 7:05 AM PST

Georgia State
The Georgia State sideline celebrates after stopping a 2 point conversion during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 13, 2021, in Conway, S.C. (AP Photo/Artie Walker, Jr.)
  • The Georgia State Panthers will meet the Ball State Cardinals in the TaxAct Camellia Bowl on December 25 at 2:30 pm EST
  • The Panthers are 5.5-point favorites after the line opened at -3
  • Keep reading for odds, picks and a prediction for this game

Bowl season continues with the TaxAct Camellia Bowl, which will be played in Montgomery, Ala. on December 25th.

In this matchup, the Ball State Cardinals (6-6) will take on the Georgia State Panthers (7-5). Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 pm EST.

Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 5.5 point favorites.

Ball State vs Georgia State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Ball State +180 +5.5 (-110) Over 51 (-105)
Georgia State -220 -5.5(-110) Under 51 (-115)

Odds as of December 24th via DraftKings

A Tale of Two Seasons

The Panthers come into this game riding a wave of momentum, having finished the regular season on a three-game winning streak. In many ways, it has been a tale of two seasons for the Panthers, who lost four of their first five games before reversing their fortunes to the tune of winning six out of their last seven.

The back half of their season featured several blowout wins, and the only blemish was a four point loss to Louisiana on the road.

Ball State has recorded both a three-game winning streak and a three-game losing streak this season, earning their bowl invitation by defeating Buffalo in their regular season finale.

Ball State is ranked 70th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of 26.5 points per game. Georgia State is slightly lower, coming in at 81st in the country and allowing an average of 27.7 points per contest.

However, season-long stats don’t tell the whole story for the Panthers. Georgia State got off to a slow start, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. The Panthers surrendered a total of 102 points in their first two games of the season, both losses. After holding Charlotte to nine points, the Panthers allowed 34 and 45 points to Auburn and Appalachian State, respectively.

The Panthers defense only allowed more than 30 points once throughout the rest of the season, a 42-40 shootout victory against Coastal Carolina. That game proved to be a huge upset victory for the Panthers, who were 10-point underdogs and +320 on the moneyline.

Offensive Troubles

Neither of these teams are exactly offensive powerhouses, either. Georgia State is ranked 83rd nationally at 26.2 points per game, while Ball State is ranked 95th nationally at 24.4 points per game.

The Panthers also have a slight edge in terms of third-down conversion percentage, although neither team is anywhere near elite in this crucial situation. The Panthers convert their third downs at a 41% clip, good for 58th nationally, while Ball State converts their third downs 39% of the time, which is 70th nationally.

Making the Key Plays

One area Georgia State excels at is getting after the opposing quarterback. The Panthers are tied for 28th-best nationally with 2.83 sacks per game (34 through 12 games). Both teams are nearly identical in terms of sacks allowed (22 for Ball State, 23 for Georgia State), but Ball State only averages 1.92 sacks per game (23 sacks through 12 games).

This differential gives the Panthers a significant edge in terms of their ability to force their opponent into difficult situations, and that is something which I believe will have a significant impact on the outcome of this game.

If the Panthers are able to make these game-changing plays early and often, they should be able to force Ball State into a situation where they need to rely on their offense. The defense is the relative strength for each of these teams, and I don’t see this being a particularly high-scoring game. Georgia State’s defense should make enough opportune momentum plays, such as drive-killing sacks, to establish an early lead and maintain that lead throughout the game.

It also helps that the Panthers are battle-tested, having played Auburn and defeated Coastal Carolina in a thriller.

The Pick

I am backing the Panthers to win this game and cover the spread. I also like the under due to the strength of both teams residing on the defensive side of the ball, along with the general lack of offensive firepower and the Panthers’ propensity for accumulating sacks.

Georgia State -5.5 (-110) 1u

Under 51 total points (-115) 0.5u

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