Upcoming Match-ups

4-Team Playoff Odds for Alabama (-260) Still Ahead of Georgia (+105) & LSU (+190)

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Football

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 7:51 AM PDT

Jake Fromm
Jake Fromm led the Georgia Bulldogs to victory against Notre Dame in Week 4, keeping Georgia's title hopes burning brightly. Photo from @FrommJake (Twitter).
  • Alabama has the best odds to make the College Football Playoff (-260) among SEC teams
  • Following the Tide in the SEC are Georgia (+105) and LSU (+190)
  • Of those three, LSU has the toughest remaining schedule, and Alabama has the easiest

As the mid-way point of the season approaches, the SEC is once again poised to be a huge player in the 2020 College Football Playoff. Sportsbooks have updated odds to make the four-team CFP field have three SEC teams in the top six.

That said, there’s a wide chasm between the top dog, Alabama (-260), and the other two: Georgia (+105) and LSU (+190).

Odds to Make the CFP Playoff

Team Odds
Ohio State -350
Alabama -260
Clemson -215
Georgia +105
Oklahoma +105
LSU +190
Penn State +375
Notre Dame +450
Wisconsin +475
Florida +800

*Odds as of 10/10/19

The odds above give the Tide a 72.2% chance to make the four-team playoff. Georgia’s odds equate to 48.8%, while LSU’s odds correspond to 34.5%.

Which SEC Team Has the Best Value?

While each of the top-three teams in the SEC has a path to the Playoff, it has to be Georgia that brings in the most value. Their remaining schedule is tougher than the Tide’s, but with Alabama at -260, it is the +105 number that makes Georgia enticing.

Remaining Opponents

Alabama Georgia LSU
@ Texas A&M South Carolina Florida
Tennessee Kentucky @ Mississippi State
Arkansas Florida (neutral site )Auburn
LSU Missouri @ Alabama
Mississippi State @ Auburn @ Ole Miss
Western Carolina Texas A&M Arkansas
@ Auburn @ Georgia Tech Texas A&M

The Bulldogs have two true road games left on the schedule (Auburn and Georgia Tech), plus a “neutral-site” game with Florida in Jacksonville (one hour outside of Gainesville).

While the trip to Jordan-Hare will be dicey, the Auburn offense has been extremely inconsistent in 2019. When juxtaposed against Alabama and LSU’s schedules, it is Georgia that has the easiest remaining road.

When juxtaposed against Alabama and LSU’s schedules, it is Georgia that has the easiest remaining road

Of course, they would still likely meet either LSU or Alabama in the SEC Championship, but history is on Georgia’s side. It was just two seasons ago, in 2017, that the Bulldogs were selected by the Playoff committee despite a loss to Auburn earlier in the year.

If Kirby Smart’s team can once again finish with only one loss, and it’s a high-quality one, they have a good chance to once again get into the four-team field.

LSU Has a Tough Road Ahead

Of the three teams at the top of the conference, LSU has the most difficult path to the College Football Playoff. This week, they host the Gators in Baton Rouge. After that, they have road trips to Alabama, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss, as well as home dates with Auburn and Texas A&M.

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LSU’s remaining opponents have a 71% winning percentage. That is the highest number of the SEC’s top-three teams. Georgia’s remaining opponents are winning 62% of their games, and Alabama’s just barely have a winning mark, sitting at 55%.

Ed Orgeron has certainly built LSU into a truly dynamic team that looks capable of beating almost anyone in the country, but their difficult remaining slate makes them a team to shy away from when it comes to College Football Playoff futures.

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