College Football Picks for Week 4 – Baylor & Arkansas Among Top Underdog Plays

• No. 17 Baylor is a strong underdog play against Iowa State in Week 4 on Saturday
• No. 10 Arkansas and SMU are also teams with a strong likelihood to pull off upsets
• Read below for betting odds, analysis and upset picks for college football Week 4

Every week in college football, there is no shortage of stunning upsets. Betting the right college football underdog on Saturday can be the key to securing a massive profit. Luckily, Week 4 features numerous matchups with upset potential.

No. 17 Baylor is a strong underdog play at Iowa State in the Big 12 opener for both in Ames this week. Elsewhere, No. 10 Arkansas beat Texas A&M last season behind quarterback K.J. Jefferson and could very well do it again on Saturday. Over in Dallas, SMU holds strong underdog value against former coach Sonny Dykes and TCU.

Here are three college football picks at plus-money to consider for Week 4, along with my analysis for each pick.

Baylor vs Iowa State Odds

All odds from BetMGM on Sept. 23.

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Pick No. 1: Baylor over Iowa State

Baylor rolled over outclassed Albany and Texas State between a 26-20 double-overtime loss at BYU on Sept.10, a game the Bears let slip away because of a missed PAT in the first half and a missed 43-yard field goal attempt in the first overtime.

Baylor RB Richard Reese the second fastest ball carrier in the country during week three. Cool vid from @RAanalytics pic.twitter.com/S3g5IV4VmZ

— Colt Barber (@Colt_Barber) September 20, 2022

The Bears have yet to hit full speed offensively behind new quarterback Blake Shapen, but freshman running back Richard Reese is off to a good start with 237 yards rushing and five touchdowns. Baylor, which believes in the ground game, has shown good balance, averaging 220 yards passing and 235 yards on the ground.

Baylor’s strength is on the other side of the ball in a match in which both teams look to increase their conference title odds. The Bears are No. 26 in Division I in total defense, and they limited BYU to 83 rushing yards,

Iowa State Football has started 4-0 one time since 1981 and that was in 2000 with my guys @SageRosenfels18 @rharklau @benbruns and @JJMoses84. They beat Baylor in Waco 31-17 to go 4-0.

— Brent Blum (@brentblum) September 18, 2022

This is Iowa State’s first real test. Never mind Iowa, which has its least efficient team in years. The Cyclones’ offense is under new management after losing quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall to the NFL.

Third-year sophomore quarterback Hunter Dekkers has completed 74 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, but two of those picks came against Iowa. He accounted for four touchdowns in a 43-10 victory over Ohio last week.

Week 3 Performance

QB Hunter Dekkers – Iowa State

• 268 Passing yards 3 TDs
• 1 Rushing TD pic.twitter.com/5Y3QVoAWUJ

— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 19, 2022

This is a tricky spot for Baylor, which plays at Oklahoma State next week in a rematch of the Big 12 title game a year ago. But the Bears have been resilient under coach Dave Aranda and will not be caught looking ahead.

Baylor is 6-3 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings. The Bears have covered the last four in the series and three of the last four in Ames. Baylor is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine as a road dog.

• Pick: Baylor ML (+112, 2 units)

Arkansas vs Texas A&M Odds

Pick No. 2: Arkansas over Texas A&M

Texas A&M has not shown much reason to believe this season, beginning with a late summer dustup between coach Jimbo Fisher and Alabama’s Nick Saban regarding “paying” players. Fisher obviously did not get the NIL reference.

QB leaders in missed tackles forced so far this season:

⚡️ KJ Jefferson: 14
⚡️ Jeff Sims: 10
⚡️ Spencer Sanders: 8 pic.twitter.com/Uygx4dj0pI

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 15, 2022

After losing to Appalachian State 20-17 two weeks ago, the Aggies benched quarterback Haynes King in favor of LSU transfer quarterback Max Johnson in attempt to kick-start the offense against Miami. It did not change much.

The Aggies beat Miami 17-9, but the offense again sputtered as Johnson completed 10 of 20 for passes for 140 yards and one touchdown. The Hurricanes outgained A&M 392-264 and had an eight-minute time of possession advantage in the second in a series of events that has seen A&M’s National Championship odds plummet. The Hurricanes had to settle for field goals after 65-, 71- and 83-yard drives and also missed two field goals.

Devon Achane made the defense look silly 😳 @AggieFootball pic.twitter.com/FGMRiPtaey

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) September 18, 2022

Razorback quarterback K.J. Jefferson had 262 yards total offense, 212 passing two touchdowns, in a 20-10 victory over the Aggies almost exactly a year ago. Jefferson was only 7 for 15  passing, but the Pigs controlled the line of scrimmage with 197 rushing yards (a la Appalachian State) and finished with 443 yards total offense.

This is a pick both for Arkansas and against A&M, which has not played an opponent this capable. The Pigs bring a unique split into this one –1-8 SU but 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road underdog. They are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

• Pick: Arkansas ML (+105, 1 unit)

TCU vs SMU Odds

Pick No.3: SMU Over TCU

There is a new twist to the 101st meeting between these two Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex rivals. New TCU coach Sonny Dykes spent the previous four seasons with the Mustangs, going 30-18 with two bowl appearances.

.@SMUFB WR Rashee Rice is leading the FBS in receiving with 491 yards on 28 catches.

He's also 1st in the FBS:
-Catches for 15+ yards (16)
-First down catches (21)
-Yards per route run (4.38)
-% targeted on his receiving snaps (46%)

Dominant start to the season. #ShrineBowl pic.twitter.com/TNoKLsiQ7d

— Eric Galko (@EricGalko) September 21, 2022

New SMU coach Rhett Lashlee was Dykes’ offensive coordinator in 2018-19, and the Mustangs still play Dykes’ Air Raid game. Quarterback Tanner Mordecai and wide receiver Rashee Rice are still making it work.

Mordecai has thrown for 1,013 yards and 10 touchdowns with two picks in wins over North Texas and Lamar and a loss to Maryland. Rice had 11 catches for 193 yards in the 34-27 loss to Maryland last week.

Dykes on Tanner Mordecai:

"He's really talented. He can run the ball. He's got a lot better speed than people know. He's accurate. Good at throwing the ball to a spot."

— Frogs Today (@frogstoday) September 20, 2022

TCU is 2-0 SU and ATS under Dykes, with wins over Colorado and FCS Tarleton State. Dykes knows Mordecai, but SMU will be particularly motivated.

• Pick: SMU ML (+112, 1 unit)

Last Week: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS  (+.65 units).

Season: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS (-1.4 units)