College Football Week 4 Upset Picks: Northwestern and BYU Dangerous Home Underdogs
- Week 4 of college football begins on Friday, September 20th
- There are several games with upset potential
- Which underdog teams should you bet on in Week 4?
Week 4 of college football gets underway on Friday, September 20th, and there are notable games with upset potential.
Northwestern and BYU are both coming off impressive Week 3 victories and hold home field advantage in Week 4.
Here are two upset picks for this week.
Michigan State vs. Northwestern Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State | -9.5 (-110) | -380 | O 38.5 (-110) |
| Northwestern | +9.5 (-110) | +290 | U 38.5 (-110) |
*Odds collected 09/18/19
Northwestern earned their first victory of the season over UNLV in Week 3 after a season opening loss at Stanford and an idle Week 2. There are plenty of things to like about the Wildcats from the game.
Sophomore QB Hunter Johnson threw his first career touchdown pass and ran in another, while junior RB Jesse Brown and redshirt freshman Drake Anderson had a combined 220 running yards with star running back Isaiah Bowser out with injury.
Michigan State is coming off a disappointing 10-7 loss to Arizona State in Week 3. The Spartans appeared to tie the game with six seconds remaining on a 42-yard Matt Coghlin field goal, but the kick was overruled after replay review showed the Spartans had 12 men on the field.
What a way to lose.
Michigan State hit a field goal to tie the game with six seconds left, but had it taken off the board after having too many men on the field.
After the penalty, their 47-yard field goal attempt sailed wide. pic.twitter.com/VHXRilx9Ky
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) September 14, 2019
Spartan Defense vs Wildcat Offense
Michigan State’s defense is only allowing only 23.3 yards per game, but Johnson and the freshman Anderson should be up for the challenge in this Big Ten conference opener. Anderson ran for 141 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in Week 3 and got a taste of Michigan State in last season’s matchup between the two clubs. Northwestern has won three straight against the Spartans.
The Wildcats only managed eight rushing yards in their matchup with the Spartans last year, but QB Clayton Thorson completed 31 of 47 passes and the defense shutdown the Spartans in the fourth quarter to lead the team to a 29-19 victory. They’re capable of doing it again this time.
I like Northwestern for the upset due to their home field advantage and history of beating Michigan State. The Spartans have been favored by an average of five points in this matchup over the last three years and have lost by 10, 9 and 14 points, respectively. With Michigan State coming off a devastating Week 3 loss and facing Northwestern at home, I think the losing trend continues for the Spartans.
Pick: Northwestern (+290)
Washington vs. BYU Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| #22 Washington | -6.5 (-115) | -250 | O 50 (-110) |
| BYU | +6.5 (-105) | +210 | U 50 (-110) |
*Odds collected 09/18/19
BYU is a confident football team coming off two huge overtime wins against Power Five teams Tennessee and at the time #24 USC. Washington suffered an upset loss to California in Week 2, but got back on track with a 52-20 win over Hawaii in Week 3.
The Huskies had their way with the Cougars in a 37-5 victory last season, but the game was in Seattle and BYU didn’t have QB Zach Wilson at the helm. Wilson has impressed this season, going 60-of-95 for 720 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions.
ZACH WILSON FOR THE LEAD!
BYU 27 – 24 USC | 4Q 5:41#GoCougs #BYUFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/McaNn7ajdW
— BYU FOOTBALL (@BYUfootball) September 14, 2019
Huskies Susceptible to The Upset
Washington has a rock-solid defense and a talented offense led by QB Jacob Eason. The Huskies have more depth from top to bottom, but BYU at LaVell Edwards Stadium has a unique resiliency to their play that makes them an intriguing upset pick in Week 4.
The Cougars have come from behind in consecutive victories and should be able to use that never-say-die mentality to remain competitive at home against Washington.
As long as BYU can keep this game close, they’ve shown they can deliver with big-time plays when it matters as defensive back Dayan Ghanwoloku showed intercepting a tipped pass from Kedon Slovis to seal the win over USC.
Dayan Ghanwoloku with the interception in overtime as @BYUfootball beats USC in overtime, 30-27! pic.twitter.com/kj2SeAHrbk
— Dana Greene (@dana_greene) September 14, 2019
Bet on BYU
Washington is the better team, but there’s value in taking a hungry underdog team here.
The Huskies will be playing on the road for the first time this season and already showed their upset potential by losing to Cal in Week 2. The Huskies were favored by 13.5 in the game, but lost 20-19 to the Golden Bears following a lengthy weather delay.
BYU’s offense isn’t on Washington’s level, but Wilson has been impressive playmaker earning the “Mormon Manziel” nickname for his play through the first three games of the season. Look for the Cougars to ride the momentum from back-to-back victories and rely on a massive performance from Wilson to hand the Huskies their second upset loss of the season.
Pick: BYU (+210)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
