Sam Ehlinger Props Suggest Heisman-Caliber Campaign from Texas QB; O/Us Set at 10 Rushing TDs and 28.5 Passing TDs

• Is Texas QB Sam Ehlinger poised for a breakout season?
• Books have posted over/under props on his 2019 regular-season totals
• What are the best bets for Ehlinger this year in terms passing, rushing, and touchdowns?

Texas junior Sam Ehlinger is likely to be in the NFL next season. If the draft were held right now, he’d be behind fellow signal callers Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, and Jake Fromm. Ehlinger has the skills to vault the Horns into the national discussion this year and, in doing so, become a hot draft commodity. Will he?

Though Ehlinger is not the front runner, he is a top-ten contender in the odds to win the 2019 Heisman. However, he doesn’t need to win the trophy to have a big year. The five over/unders posted (interceptions, passing yards, rushing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns) are lofty but not impossible.

Let’s take each one in turn.

Sam Ehlinger Total Interceptions in 2019 Regular Season

*All odds taken 08/22/19

As a freshman, Ehlinger attempted 275 passes and seven were picked off. Last year he fired 425 passes and was intercepted only five times. Interestingly, of the five only one came against the seven ranked teams Texas faced.

The Horns schedule features just three teams ranked in the preseason. Even if he managed only a couple of total picks in those three contests, that leaves nine games to toss three picks or less in order to go under. As a junior he is going to be asked to pass a lot and the total is just awfully low to reasonably expect.

Pick: Over 5.5 INT’s (-115)

Sam Ehlinger Total Passing Yards in 2019 Regular Season

Playing a lot but not full time in his first season Ehlinger passed for 1,915 yards. Last year he finished just shy of 3,300 yards in the air. Four times last season he eclipsed 300 yards passing. That said, he was held under 200 yards on four occasions.

If Ehlinger remains healthy this season he needs to average 234 yards a game to reach 2,800 yards for the season. That doesn’t seem unreasonable at all.

Pick: Over 2,800 yards (-115)

Sam Ehlinger Total Rushing TD in 2019 Regular Season

The ability to run is one the things that makes Ehlinger dynamic. The fact he does so effectively at 6’3″ and 230 pounds means he is a weapon at the goal line. As a freshman he reached the end zone twice using his feet, and then upped that to 16 last year.

This comes down to risk tolerance. Does coach Tom Herman want to let Ehlinger take hits near the goal line or find someone else who can be effective down there? Five of his rushing scores last season came when big money was on the line, in the Big XII Title Game and Sugar Bowl, events that do not count in this regular season prop. Our guess is they will be careful against teams that Texas is too good for with Ehlinger.
Pick: Under 10 (-115)

Sam Ehlinger Total Rushing Yards in 2019 Regular Season?

In his first two years Ehlinger has rushed for 385 and 482 yards. Of the nearly 500 yards on the ground last year just over 100 came in the conference title and bowl games.

The better the team Texas faces and higher the stakes the more he runs. That said, if he tallies 2.7 yards per carry, lower than the 3.4 he managed as a freshman and 2.9 he rushed for last year, he needs 139 carries to hit the total. Since he got 164 carries last year, that feels realistic

Pick: Over 375 rushing yards (-135)

Sam Ehlinger Total TD Passes in 2019 Regular Season

Ehlinger more than doubled his 11 scoring tosses in 2017 to 25 last year. While some of his statistical numbers really varied week to week and depended upon the opponent, not passing touchdowns. He threw exactly two touchdown passes eight times last year. Four times he was under two, and twice he exceeded a pair.

If he tallies a pair of scores each week that is 24. While he likely will have a three or four score game, he may get shutout or have one passing score occasionally too. Because he scores a lot using his feet, it isn’t abnormal for his passing TD total to be lower than expected.

Pick: Under 28.5 TD passes (-115)