Georgia or Clemson Offer Best College Football Playoff Value
- With just one week before the final Playoff committee rankings, Alabama is a huge favorite to win it all
- Do their odds present value? Are they overrated?
- Is Clemson or Georgia a smarter bet?
College football’s regular season is over, so the only thing standing between us and the final Playoff committee rankings (which decide who plays who in the College Football Playoff) is a handful of conference championship games and at least one howling controversy.
2019 College Football Playoff Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alabama | -260 |
| Clemson | +350 |
| Notre Dame | +900 |
| Georgia | +1200 |
| Ohio State | +1500 |
As you can see, Alabama are huge favorites. Those odds carry an implied probability of just over 70%, which is a little concerning since the Playoff hasn’t been set yet.
Alabama Overrated
Alabama’s 2018 team is one of the most interesting, talented, and efficient teams in the history of college football. It is also strongly overrated by sportsbooks. Both of these things can be true.
Almost any road to the national title for Alabama requires beating at least one and probably two of Clemson, Notre Dame, and Georgia. The Crimson Tide are the best team in football, but nobody should be odds-on favorites against that schedule.
Even pretty generous win-probability math wouldn’t make Alabama odds-on favorites until after a win in the SEC Championship game.
Futures bettors seem to have written that game off as a foregone conclusion, even though statistical systems have it pretty close.
Clemson or Georgia the Value Picks
It’s hard to overrate Clemson’s path to the Playoff. The 12-0 Clemson Tigers have just the ACC Championship game (featuring Pitt, somehow) in their way.
That gives them better odds of making the Playoff than anyone (including 12-0 Notre Dame) and a great shot at the #1 spot if something should go wrong on Saturday.
They’ve played Alabama tough in previous playoff games, and even won one championship. Putting their odds at +350 when they’re almost certain to make the Playoff seems like great value.
Georgia’s another great pick. Everyone assumes they’ll lose on Saturday, and they might, but again, not a foregone conclusion. The Bulldogs have a clear path to the national title, and it starts on Saturday.
They’re also a great team!
They’ve very happily munched through everything put in front of them, lost one tough game to LSU, and still have a five-star blue-chip true freshman just waiting on the bench for a game important enough.
To be clear: I don’t envy Georgia’s position. I wouldn’t want to play Alabama this year for anything.
All I’m saying is that, at +1200, the Bulldogs might present incredible value for one of the two or three absolute best teams in the sport. If you’d like, you can even place a spread bet on the SEC Championship game, as a hedge.
Alex studied political science in university but spent most of that time watching college football. He covered sports betting for SBD from 2017-2019. Avid tennis player, golf nut, and motorsports nerd.
