Georgia’s Four-Team Playoff Odds Improve from +270 to +180 After Bama Loses to LSU
- Georgia is 8-1 after blanking Missouri last week (27-0)
- The Bulldogs need one more conference win to clinch the SEC West
- Georgia has made only one College Football Playoff (2017-18)
There are only a handful of teams that still control their own destiny when it comes to reaching the College Football Playoff. Entering Week 12, Georgia is one of them.
The Bulldogs — No. 5 in the latest AP poll, with the CFB Playoff rankings set to come out Tuesday night — bulldozed a short-handed Missouri team (lacking its starting quarterback) last weekend in a 27-0 win. They face their toughest remaining regular-season test this Saturday against Auburn (No. 13 in the AP poll), with a chance to clinch a berth in the SEC championship game.
On the other side of the conference, Alabama lost to LSU, which means the Crimson Tide will miss the SEC championship game as long as LSU wins at least two of its final three games (all against unranked opponents).
Georgia’s playoff stock is on the rise, evidenced by the latest Four-Team Playoff odds, but can the Bulldogs emerge from a crowded leaderboard to secure a coveted spot in the semifinals?
Georgia’s College Football Playoff Odds
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Georgia makes the playoff | +180 |
| Georgia misses the playoff | -220 |
Odds taken Nov. 12.
The “Easy” Way
Georgia is still an underdog to reach the playoff (+180). But the good news is, the team has a path to get there without any debate. Of course, while their path is simple, that doesn’t mean it’s easy: the Bulldogs have to win four straight games.
??Victory Vibes ??#ATD #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/NW0I69zoIR
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 11, 2019
The rest of Georgia’s schedule looks like this: at No. 13 Auburn (7-2), vs. Texas A&M (6-3), at Georgia Tech (2-7). Assuming all of that goes well, the Bulldogs would presumably meet No. 1 LSU (9-0) in the SEC championship game.
If Georgia can escape all of that with four wins to finish as the 12-1 SEC champion, they’ll be in the four-team field for sure. Indeed, if they finish with one loss and a win over LSU, they’ll have an argument for a top-two seed.
I think this is pretty simple and would be some combo of:
Ohio State
Clemson
Georgia
LSUPeople would be mad, but I don't see how it goes any other way https://t.co/oqZFNYs2fV
— Alex Kirshner (@alex_kirshner) November 10, 2019
Of course, beating the top team in the country is a tough ask. But if Georgia can’t do it, there might be another way in.
The Possible Exception
In the five-year history of the College Football Playoff, there has been one instance in which a Power 5 team reached the semifinals without winning its conference (Alabama, 2017-18). Is that route possible for Georgia?
The Alabama team that pulled it off was a rather exceptional exception. The 2017-18 Crimson Tide were ranked No. 1 from Week 1 through Week 12, when they lost on the road to No. 6 Auburn.
The Auburn Tigers are your 2017 @SEC West Champions! See you in Atlanta.
Auburn 26, Alabama 14 #WarEagle pic.twitter.com/boi0KMkJA4
— Auburn Football (@AuburnFootball) November 25, 2017
Auburn then got blown out by Georgia in the ensuing SEC championship game, allowing idle Alabama to leapfrog them into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. The Crimson Tide went on to win the title.
WHAT A COMEBACK!
Congratulations @AlabamaFTBL – 2018 National Champions! #RollTide || #NationalChampionship pic.twitter.com/yotHXInKyh
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) January 9, 2018
Georgia’s season hasn’t been like that. The Bulldogs haven’t been ranked higher than No. 3 and their loss came at home against unranked South Carolina. So while a previous Alabama team has shown its possible to reach the playoff without winning your conference, it’s unlikely that Georgia would receive the same kind of grace from the voting committee.
That’s all the more true when you consider that no two-loss team has ever reached the CFP in the five-year history.
Decision Time
If you’ve watched LSU at all this year, you know how lethal that team is on both sides of the ball (ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s team efficiency ratings). And since Georgia almost certainly has to beat LSU to get in, your best bet is to pick the Bulldogs to miss the playoff.
Pick: Georgia misses the playoff (-220)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
