Iowa State vs Texas Odds, Lines and Spread
- #20 Texas is a 1.5-point favorite over #15 Iowa State on Friday, November 27th (Noon EST)
- Both teams enter play riding impressive three-game winning streaks and need a victory to keep their Big 12 title game hopes alive
- See below for analysis, odds and a betting prediction
Thanksgiving weekend means afternoon football for four straight days. While the NFL will take center stage on Thursday, Friday will belong to the college ranks. One of the biggest games on Friday’s slate features a pair of Big 12 foes, as #15 Iowa State clashes with #20 Texas.
#15 Iowa State vs #20 Texas Week 13 Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones | +1.5 (-109) | +100 | Over 57.0 (-110) |
| Texas Longhorns | -1.5 (-112) | -121 | Under 57.0 (-110) |
Odds taken Nov. 24th at DraftKings.
The Longhorns are currently a 1.5-point favorite, in a game that features a total of 57. Both teams enter play riding three-game winning streaks, and each program needs a victory to keep its Big 12 title game hopes alive.
Running All Over the Competition
The Cyclones are fresh off a dominating 45-0 victory over Kansas State. They rushed for 240 yards on 44 attempts, led by running back Breece Hall. The Sophomore racked up 135 yards and two scores on the ground, bringing his touchdown total to 15 in just eight games.
Breece Hall is on an absolute rampage in the 1st half
💥123 yards
💥 2 TDs— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 21, 2020
He leads the conference in carries, rushing yards and rushing scores, and is the catalyst behind the Big 12’s number one rushing attack. Iowa State averages 205.3 rushing yards per game, 36.2 more than the next closest team.
The Cyclones have a +82 point differential over their last three wins, but yards on the ground could be hard to come by versus Texas. The Longhorns are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and recently held Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard, the nation’s leading rusher last season, to 72 yards on 25 attempts.
*Chuba Hubbard
vs Iowa State:
25 for 139 yds; 5.6 avg
vs Texas:
25 for 72 yds; 2.9 avg pic.twitter.com/kl8pl5FpKb
— David Allen (@Doc_Texas) November 1, 2020
If Hall is unable to get going on Friday, the offensive burden will fall on QB Brock Purdy. The Junior is completing 63.7% of his passes this season, but has failed to top 240 yards in six of eight outings.
Texas’ defense has been particularly strong at home, allowing 16 or fewer points in three of its past four games.
Sam Needs to be the Man
On the Longhorns’ side of the ball, the offensive conversation starts and finishes with QB Sam Ehlinger. The Senior was supposed to be a Heisman Trophy sleeper this season, but he’s in the midst of his worst statistical year since he was a Freshman.
Texas QB Sam Ehlinger on being the 4-year face of the program: "It’s an interesting life. I don’t know even know how to describe it to you, honestly. It’s a blessing for sure. There’s a lot of beautiful things that come with it. I wouldn’t want it any other way."
— Brian Davis (@BDavisAAS) November 24, 2020
He’s completing just 58.8% of his passes, and averaging only 7.3 yards per attempt. His interception rate is up, and he’s coming off his worst outing of 2020. Last time out versus West Virginia, the conference’s number one scoring defense, he completed 48.4% of his throws for just 184 yards.
He did rack up two touchdowns, and has now contributed 29 total scores, but life won’t be an easier against the Cyclones.
Iowa State is No. 1️⃣3️⃣ in the first @CFBPlayoff rankings. Iowa State and Oklahoma are the only two Big 12 teams to appear in the CFP rankings in each of the last four seasons.
🌪️🚨🌪️ pic.twitter.com/zcKQ1cJLL2
— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB) November 25, 2020
Iowa State is the nation’s seventh most efficient defense according to ESPN’s FPI, and has held four of its last five opponents below 25 points.
The Verdict
This total actually opened 1.5 points higher, but there’s still value on under 57. Both of these programs are strong on defense, and while Texas may be averaging 40.4 points per game, that number is a tad misleading.
The Longhorns put up 122 points in their first two outings against UTEP and Texas Tech, two defenses ranked 104th and 81st by ESPN’s FPI. They couldn’t crack 20 points versus the Mountaineers, and even Baylor held them below 28 points.
Expect Texas to struggle offensively again versus Iowa State, and rely on its defense to keep this game close.
Pick: Under 57 (-110)
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
