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Louisiana vs Georgia State Odds, Spread and Picks

Blair Johnson

by Blair Johnson in College Football

Updated Nov 3, 2021 · 6:37 AM PDT

Levi Lewis throwing
Louisiana-Lafayette quarterback Levi Lewis (1) during an NCAA college football game against the Texas, Sunday, Sept. 5, 2021, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
  • Louisiana (7-1, 5-0 Sun Belt) is a big favorite against Georgia State (4-4, 3-1 Sun Belt) at home at 7:30 pm ET Thursday on ESPN
  • The Ragin’ Cajuns have won all five previous matchups against the Panthers in the series, including last year’s 34-31 overtime victory in Atlanta
  • See game odds, analysis and a prediction by scrolling below

After entering the season with a No. 23 ranking in the AP poll and losing at then-No. 21 Texas 38-18 in the season opener, the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns have won seven straight. Now, head coach Billy Napier’s squad hosts the Georgia State Panthers on Thursday in a game broadcast at 7:30 pm ET on ESPN.

Both squads are centered around their rushing attack, with Louisiana ranked 23rd among FBS programs in rushing yards per game, and the Panthers ranked 16th.

Louisiana is an 11.5-point-favorite against head coach Shawn Elliott’s club, which comes into the mid-week primetime matchup as winners of three in a row.

Louisiana vs Georgia State Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Georgia State Panthers +11.5 (-110) +360 O 54.5 (-110)
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns -11.5 (-110) -490 U 54.5 (-110)

Odds as of November 2nd at DraftKings

Ragin’ Favorites

After defeating Texas State 45-0 in its 2021 homecoming game, the home team looks every bit the part of favorites. Quarterback Levi Lewis tossed three touchdown against the Bobcats to pass Ragin’ Cajun legend Jake Delhomme as the all-time program leader.

But as noted above, Napier’s offense revolves around its ground game. Louisiana has not missed a beat since losing Elijah Mitchell to the 49ers in the 2021 NFL Draft. The Cajuns feature a pair of tailbacks – redshirt sophomore Chris Smith and freshman Montrell Johnson – who have each rushed for over 500 yards in the team’s first eight games this season. Smith is slightly ahead of Johnson, busting off 621 yards on 98 carries and eight rushing touchdowns.

Right behind him has been New Orleans native Johnson, with 512 yards rushing on 86 carries and seven trips to pay dirt. The Panthers will certainly have their hands full with this dynamic duo. Georgia State will also have to contend with an emboldened defensive unit.

The Cajun defense is coming off its first shutout since the 2012 season and now ranks 20th nationally in scoring defense, holding opponents to 19.2 points per game.

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Comeback Kids

Georgia State has bounced back nicely from its disappointing 1-4 start. The Panthers knocked off budding rival Georgia Southern 21-14 last Saturday, courtesy of a 23-yard touchdown run by Jamyest Williams with 26 seconds remaining in the game.

It marked the team’s third consecutive win, all in conference play, to get back to .500. The surging Panthers now find themselves in a three-way tie for first place in the Sun Belt East. Like their ranked opponent Thursday, Elliott’s group is winning via the run. During their three-game winnings streak, the Panthers have averaged 282 yards rushing.

The rushing attack features a trio of stellar running backs, led by Tucker Gregg (552 yards, four touchdowns). Not far behind the former walk-on are Williams (413 yards, five touchdowns) and quarterback Darren Grainger (388 yards, one touchdown), who have all found holes behind a veteran offensive line with 175 career starts.

The GSU defense is also worth mentioning, allowing a total of three touchdowns in back-to-back wins over Texas State and Georgia Southern.

The Ragin’ Cajuns will be the third ranked team (AP Poll) the Panthers have matched up against this season. And even though the Georgia State program is still looking for its first win against a ranked FBS team, five of the 10 occasions have come against Power Five foes ranked 12th or higher in the AP poll. Earlier this season, GSU led then-No. 23 Auburn until the final minute, when the Tigers scored the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 45 seconds left.

YouTube video

While the Panthers may be winless against ranked teams, it feels like they’re getting closer to finishing one.

The Trends are the Cajuns’ Friends

The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-0 when appearing on ESPN’s family of networks this season and Louisiana owns a 24-7 record against Sun Belt opposition under Coach Napier. Clearly, it appears the home team is the rightful, rather large-sized favorite. Their head coach has a pretty good pedigree, too.

A big reason why the team has ripped off seven straight wins is their experience. Louisiana returned a nation-high 96% of its production from a season ago, including 93% of its offensive production and 98% of its defensive production. That kind of returning talent is hard to bet against.

I love what Georgia State has done recently. But with the Louisiana home crowd sure to be fired up for this “Blackout” home tilt, I’m laying the points and going with the favorite.

  • The Pick: Louisiana -11.5 (-110)
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