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LSU Opens as 12.5-Point Favorite Over Unbeaten Florida in Week 7; LSU Only 9-10 in Last 19 Off a Bye

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in College Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:57 PM PDT

Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers offense has been one of the best in the country this season.
LSU Tigers QB Joe Burrow has entered the Heisman Trophy race starting the year with 5 impressive wins. Photo by Tammy Anthony Baker / Creative Commons.
  • The #7 Florida Gators (6-0) are double-digit road ‘dogs to the #5 LSU Tigers (5-0) on Saturday (Oct. 12)
  • LSU has scored at least 42 points in every game this season, but has yet to face an elite defense
  • Florida has allowed 21 points or fewer in all six wins this season, which includes victories over four Power-5 opponents

Baton Rouge will play host to the best college football game of Week 7 when the 7th-ranked Florida Gators face the 5th-ranked LSU Tigers. The prolific offensive numbers from the 2019 Tigers, coupled with a strong homefield advantage in Death Valley, led to LSU opening as 12.5-point favorites.

The spread has already been bet up. 

Florida Gators vs LSU Tigers Early Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
#7 Florida +13.0 (-110) TBD O 54.5 (-110)
#5 LSU -13.0(-110) TBD U 54.5 (-110)

*Odds as of 10/7.

Let me be very clear off the start, I am a big fan of Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow and think the Tigers have real business in the SEC this year. That said, 13 points in this game is startlingly high and betting on the Gators is absolutely the play I’m making for three key reasons.

Kyle Trask Coming Off Biggest Win of His Life

When Kyle Trask took over for the injured Feleipe Franks, all the stories were about his lack of playing time dating all the way back to high school (when he was D’Eriq King’s backup). Well, he’s proven he deserves to be on the field. He’s now 70 for 97 with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. His 72.2% completion percentage is proof that he can spot the ball where it’s needed.

Those in the Florida loop will remember that the starting job probably would have been Trask’s last year had he not gotten injured in preseason.

The biggest test for Trask came just last week against Auburn and he performed admirably. He was 19 for 31 for 234 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 24-13 victory. The stats may not jump off the page but the result is undeniable: Trask handled a tough opponent well and was able to come out with a huge win.

Florida Defense Elite Unit Capable of Shutting Down LSU

Florida’s defense ranks 11th in efficiency nationwide by ESPN and they could absolutely give the Tigers fits this weekend. The Gators are 6-0 and have yet to give up more than 21 points in a game. They rank first in the country in both takeaways and interceptions.

Unlike most of their peers in the SEC, Florida actually had a challenging schedule out of the gate. Four of their five wins this year came versus Power-5 opponents: Miami, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Auburn.

Linebacker David Reese II, in particular, is a name you should be ready to hear early and often. He leads the Gators with 49 tackles this season, including 13 against Auburn last week. Jonathan Greenard could play a big role as well; he is second on the team with 26 tackles and ranks first with three interceptions.

Context is Key When Evaluating LSU Offense

LSU has scored 42 or more points in all five games this season and is more electric on that side of the ball than they have been in years. That said, context is key when evaluating just how impressive they’ve been.

LSU beat Texas 45-38, which is a good win, but the Longhorns aren’t known as an elite defensive unit right now. Beyond that victory, wins over Georgia Southern, Northwestern State, Utah State and SEC-bottom dweller Vanderbilt do absolutely nothing to impress. It’s more a case for what’s wrong with college football than it is a case for why we should be impressed with LSU.

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Coming off a bye should help, but not enough.  Betting-wise, LSU is actually sub-.500 after a bye since 2012, going 9-10 ATS. Florida will be by far the best defensive team they’ve faced, which may not result in a loss, but could definitely pose problems with a spread that’s approaching two touchdowns.

History Favors the Underdog

One other thing to consider here is the history between these two teams. The underdog has won the last three meetings outright, including last year’s victory by the 22nd-ranked Gators over the 5th-ranked Tigers. That most-recent upset was in Gainesville and, while the location could make another upset difficult, covering the number shouldn’t be an issue in a game that will be lower scoring than most expect.

PICK: Florida +13 (-110)

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