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Maryland vs Michigan Odds, Preview and Prediction

Jack Magruder

by Jack Magruder in College Football

Updated Sep 21, 2022 · 12:59 PM PDT

Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum rushes with the football
Sep 17, 2022; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines running back Blake Corum (2) rushes in the first half against the Connecticut Huskies at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
  • No. 4 Michigan is a 16.5-point favorite over Maryland on Saturday
  • Maryland is 1-6 SU and ATS in the series since joining the Big Ten
  • Read below for Maryland vs Michigan odds, preview and prediction

No. 4 Michigan (3-0) is a 16.5-point home favorite against Maryland in the Big Ten opener for both at noon ET Saturday on FOX. The Wolverines have scored at least 51 points in each game in victories over Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn.

Maryland (3-0) is averaging 499 yards total offense per game, one yard and change more than the Wolverines. Michigan drubbed Maryland 59-18 last Nov. 20, the Terps’ last loss.

Maryland vs Michigan Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Maryland Terrapins +16.5 (-109) +550 Over 65.5 (-108)
Michigan Wolverines -16.5 (-112) -910 Under 65.5 (-113)

Odds from Barstool Sportsbook on Sept. 21. See the available Barstool Sportsbook promo code

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The Wolverines were bet down after opening as a 17.5-point favorite, but the far bigger move came on the total, which jumped all the way from 61.5 points to 65.5. Michigan leads NCAA Division I with an average of 55.3 points per game, and Maryland is averaging 40.3 points.

The Terrapins have gone over the total in five of their last seven games. Michigan has been under in six of its last eight at home.

Michigan QB Change Works

Wolverines’ quarterback J.J. McCarthy completed 15 of 18 passes for 214 yards in a 59-0 rout of UConn last week, his second start since winning the job from 2021 regular Cade McNamara.

The change appears permanent, inasmuch as McNamara suffered a leg injury in the second quarter against UConn and will miss several weeks, according to coach Jim Harbaugh. Regardless, McCarthy has more tools, and he has stepped right into the middle of the Heisman Trophy odds.

While McCarthy has been solid in his first two starts, the Wolverines won their third straight game using the approach that took them to the 2021 Big Ten title and a spot in the CFP Final Four — defense and a run-first offense.

Halfback Blake Corum, who split time with NFL fourth-round draftee Hassan Haskins last season, tied a school record with five rushing touchdowns against UConn. Corum had 71 yards and 12 carries and had four scores in the first half, when the Wolverines led 38-0.

UConn had six first downs and 110 total yards against the Wolverines, who have given up two touchdowns in three games. The Wolverines lost three defenders in the first two rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, including No. 2 overall defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson, but remain the second choice in the Big Ten in the college football playoff odds.

Maryland Led by QB Tagovailoa

Tua’s brother Taulia Tagovailoa threw for 3,860 yards and 26 touchdowns in a breakout 2021, and he has picked up where he left off. He has completed 77.3 percent of his passes for 895 yards and six touchdowns in wins over Buffalo, Charlotte and SMU.

Tagovailoa has found a running mate in redshirt freshman Roman Hemby, who has 243 yards, three touchdowns and a 9.2-yard average per carry to help the Terps get halfway to their expected number in the CFB win totals odds. Hemby had 151 yards against SMU.

While Maryland’s record is impressive, some of the numbers are not. The Terps have committed 31 penalties for 271 yards, tied for 128th among the 131 NCAA Division I teams.

SMU had 520 yards total offense and 27-20 fourth-quarter lead before the Terps rallied to win, overcoming 15 penalties.

Michigan vs Maryland Prediction

The Wolverines have run it up against three of arguably the worst 20 teams in Division I, so their victories come with a few grains of salt. They begin the most difficult stretch of the season next week with a game at Iowa, followed two weeks later by home games against Penn State and Michigan State. That should not matter here.

The Michigan train should keep rolling against undisciplined Maryland, who gave up 503 yards and committed eight penalties in a 59-18 home loss to the Wolves a year ago. The Terps are 2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS in the last 16 as a road underdog. Michigan is 7-2 ATS in its last nine and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home, and one of the ATS losses came as a 51.5-point favorite.

The pick: Michigan -16.5 (-112)

Last week: 3-0 ATS; This season: 6-4 ATS (+1.6 units)

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