Miami (Ohio) vs Central Michigan: MAC Title Game Picks & Odds

• Central Michigan is a -7.0 favorite over Miami (OH) in the 2019 MAC title game (Dec. 7)
• The Chippewas are 3-0 in the MAC title game, last winning in 2009
• The RedHawks are 2-2 in the MAC title game, last winning in 2010

Emerging from the trash heap that was the Mid-American Conference this season, the Miami (OH) RedHawks (7-5) will face the Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4) on Saturday, Dec. 7th, in the MAC championship game at Ford Field in Detroit.

It certainly isn’t a matchup of football titans — Miami was an underdog in nine games this year, while Central Michigan was an underdog in seven games — but there’s a reason these teams found their way into the title game. And if you wager wisely, there will be reason for you to watch.

Miami (OH) vs. Central Michigan Odds

Odds taken Dec. 3 .

The Chippewas are currently seven-point favorites over Miami (OH).

Head-to-Head History

Neither team has played in the MAC title game since 2010, which was the last time Central Michigan won. Miami hasn’t played (or won) the game since 2009. These teams also faced off in the 2007 MAC title, a game in which the Chippewas earned a dominant 35-10 win.

Miami has had more success recently, though, winning the past two matchups (2016 and 2017) by a combined score of 68-31.

Complete recap and stats of our 31-14 win over Central Michiganhttps://t.co/t756TBBQEO pic.twitter.com/uiDssyLM67

— Miami Football (@MiamiOHFootball) September 24, 2017

Against common opponents this season (Buffalo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green), Miami and Central Michigan both went 3-2.

Plus/Minus Favors Chippewas

Here’s the key separating factor: the plus/minus categories.

Central Michigan was positive in point differential (+72), total yards per game (+96.6) and first downs per game (+4.1).

Gonna tell my kids this team was picked to finish last in the MAC. #FireUpChips | ?⬆️? pic.twitter.com/1BhzZmhqMz

— CMU Football (@CMU_Football) November 29, 2019

Miami, meanwhile, was the opposite, with negatives in point differential (-51), total yards per game (-72.5), and first downs per game (-7.0). To do that and still pull off a winning record is impressive, but it means the RedHawks might be outperforming their expected outcomes a bit.

Injury Updates

Both teams have a substantial injury to follow in the final few days leading up to the title game. For Miami, it’s quarterback Brett Gabbert; for Central Michigan, it’s wide receiver JaCorey Sullivan.

Gabbert, a true freshman, started all 12 games for the RedHawks. He left with an undisclosed injury during Friday’s game against Ball State. Miami had a 27-14 lead when Gabbert left, but went on to lose 41-27 without him. Clearly, his absence would be a huge loss.

But Gabbert practiced on Tuesday — a very positive sign — and was deemed “more than probable” by his coach.

Freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert is practicing today. He was injured and didn’t play in the second half last Friday at Ball State. Yesterday, Chuck Martin called him “more than probable” for Saturday’s MAC Championship game. @miamistudent pic.twitter.com/BziAtcsKbO

— Chris Vinel (@ChrisAVinel) December 3, 2019

As for Sullivan, who leads the Chippewas with 47 catches and 712 yards this season, he is currently listed as questionable with a foot injury.

Sullivan took to Twitter on Sunday, however, with a tweet that appears to give a strong indication he’ll be ready to play.

9 days I’ll be 21…in 6 days I’ll be a MAC champ … don’t know which one to be more excited about

— Wizard Ke11y (@JacoreySullivan) December 1, 2019

Who’s Hot

Central Michigan has won three straight against-the-spread (and six of seven), while Miami has lost back to back ATS after a four-game win streak.

The Chippewas have won ATS in all five matchups as a favorite this year, while Miami is 5-4 ATS as an underdog.

Decision Time

Even assuming Gabbert plays Saturday, that’s still a freshman coming into a game with an injury risk. Central Michigan is the smart bet here, led by a strong running back tandem and a fifth-year quarterback as the starter.

Quarterback Quinten Dormady threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns in his Central Michigan debut and the Chippewa offense rolled up 529 total yards on Thursday as CMU downed Albany, 38-21, in the season opener at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. pic.twitter.com/J6wx4NYbbg

— CMU Football (@CMU_Football) August 30, 2019

And roll with the over (54.0), as Central Michigan has posted more than 40 points, itself, in five of its past seven games.

Picks: Central Michigan -7.0 (-104); over 54.0 (-110)