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Michigan Opens as -2 Favorite Over Notre Dame in Week 9

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Football

Updated Jan 6, 2023 · 3:40 AM PST

Michigan running on to field.
2-point favorites, Michigan hosts Notre Dame in Week 9. Photo by: Missy Caulk (flickr) (CC License)
  • Michigan are 2-point favorites at home against Notre Dame
  • The Wolverines come off of a loss at Penn State, while the Irish come off of a bye week
  • Notre Dame is 4-2 against the spread in 2019, while Michigan is 3-4

Michigan returns home after suffering a tough road loss at Penn State. They’ll play host to a 5-1 Notre Dame team whose CFP odds are still alive entering the back-half of the season.

The Wolverines open as 2-point favorites at home in one of the more surprising numbers in the  NCAAF Week 9 odds.

Team Spread
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +2 (-110)
Michigan Wolverines -2 (-110)

*Odds taken 10/20/19

Michigan fell to Penn State last week and the offense once again sputtered. Shea Patterson completed under 60% of his passes, the running game averaged 3.2 yards per carry and the Wolverines were only 7 of 17 on third down conversions. Offensive coordinator Josh Gattis hasn’t done much to quiet the criticism he’s receiving this season.

Rivalry Renewed

Last year was the first time the two schools had met since 2014. While Notre Dame and Michigan are historical rivals, they don’t have the same kind of familiarity with each other that yearly opponents develop.


However, this is the 2nd year of renewal for one of the sport’s most tradition-laden rivalries, and the environment that is sure to exist in Ann Arbor certainly plays a role in the line leaning the Wolverines way. Notre Dame may be a better team, but going into the Big House and coming out with a win will be a tall task.

Notre Dame vs Michigan Last 10 Meetings

Year Winner Final Score
2018 Notre Dame 24-17
2014 Notre Dame 31-0
2013 Michigan 41-30
2012 Notre Dame 13-6
2011 Michigan 35-31
2010 Michigan 28-24
2009 Michigan 38-34
2008 Notre Dame 35-17
2007 Michigan 38-0
2006 Michigan 47-21

Where Will the Line Move?

Public opinion of Michigan couldn’t be more negative. They continue to under-perform amidst enormous hype, and Gattis’ offense has been wildly inconsistent.

Meanwhile, Notre Dame has handled their business all year, with the lone blemish on the record being a 6-point loss at Georgia. Not only do they hold a 5-1 record this year, but they are also 4-2 against the spread through 6 games.

With the line opening at Michigan -2, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it bend towards the Fighting Irish in the coming week.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Michigan Wolverines

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
VS
Michigan Wolverines
5-1 Record 5-2
4-2 Record Against the Spread 3-4
39.2 Points Per Game 29.0
16.8 Points Allowed Per Game 19.0
450.5 Yards Per Game 391.6
346.2 Yards Allowed Per Game 283.3

What’s the Best Bet?

If you like Notre Dame, it would be wise to get in early before the line moves away from the Irish. If you’re on Michigan, you can afford to wait. There will be value in the Wolverines after the money comes in against Harbaugh and co.

The Wolverines have the talent to win any given game. That is what makes their inconsistencies so frustrating. Shea Patterson is a talented quarterback. They have weapons galore, in Tarik Black, Donovan People-Jones, and Zach Charbonnet, just to name a few.

However, Michigan has been disappointing against the spread and, well, disappointing as a whole. However, at home, in what should be a wild atmosphere, there is still value in betting on a team that possesses this much talent.

USC was able to play Notre Dame to a 3-point game before the Irish went into their bye week. Brian Kelly’s team is very good, but they are beatable. The move here is to wait on the Wolverines.

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