Michigan State’s 2020 Win Total Drops a Full Game from 5.5 to 4.5; Is Under Still the Best Bet?

• Michigan State saw its win total drop by a full game creating an opportunity to make a strong wager
• Can the Spartans compete in their first season since 2006 without Mark Dantonio as head coach?
• Here are three key points to consider before betting on this win total

Oddsmakers had little faith in the Michigan State Spartans when they opened the 2020 NCAAF win totals and, well, they have even less faith now that early money has come in.

Sparty opened at a pessimistic 5.5 o.u and has been bet down to 4.5, which is tied for third-lowest in the Big Ten, only ahead of Maryland and perennial basement-dweller Rutgers.

Big Ten Conference O/U Totals

Odds taken May 15th.

Is there value better Michigan State now that the total has dropped a full game or do you need to bet that under and side with the oddsmakers before it falls even more?

For my money, it looks pretty clear the Spartans are going under the number and here are three key reasons to bet under 4.5 at plus-money.

Mark Dantonio Out, Mel Tucker In

You could make the case each of these is a separate reason but I’ll group them together. Mark Dantonio was the head coach at Michigan State since 2007 and had done an admirable job competing with the likes of Ohio State, Penn State, and rival Michigan. With his abrupt retirement, the team quickly ushered in the era of Mel Tucker and it is certainly a cause for concern.

The barbershop 💈 is open! 🤦🏾‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/Dhcff7It13

— Mel Tucker (@Coach_mtucker) May 12, 2020

Tucker has spent exactly one season in college football as a head coach. Now you’re probably thinking it must have been a remarkable campaign to land a gig like this right? That would be a hard no; Tucker finished his lone season at Colorado with an uninspiring 5-7 record.

Well, I should say uninspiring to everyone outside of the Athletic Director’s office in East Lansing. However you want to frame it, the switch at coach appears to be a rather significant downgrade.

Questions At Quarterback Could Be Season-Long Theme

Who will start at quarterback for the Spartans? It’s a big question, especially if you’re looking to wager on their win total. It appears the choice will either be redshirt freshman Theo Day or redshirt sophomore Rocky Lombardi. When you look at the numbers, it certainly seems like neither will prove capable of winning games in their first year as starter.

Position Preview: Quarterbacks

Who’s ready to see these gunslingers in action soon? 👀 pic.twitter.com/C0eezzTC9R

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) May 8, 2020

Lombardi has had more reps but they haven’t been pretty. Over the past two seasons he’s attempted 175 passes while accounting for 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.

His completion percentage is an even bigger issue. In 2018, Lombardi completed 44.2% of his passes; last year, he managed to get worse, completing only 33.3%. Theo Day may seem like the logical alternative but he only attempted three passes total in his first year on campus before taking a redshirt year.

Finding Wins On Schedule Isn’t An Easy Task

The Spartans play in the difficult Big Ten and, to their credit, they didn’t schedule cupcakes out of conference either. In addition to games at Iowa, Penn State, and BYU, they host Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, and Miami. There aren’t many matchups to like in that group and, looking at the rest of their schedule, it’s tough to expect them to run the table with a young quarterback dealing with an overhaul of the coaching staff.

The glow up 😧 #GoGreen pic.twitter.com/vQA3EqsYT5

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) May 15, 2020

The schedule is a beast, the questions at quarterback are legit, and Mel Tucker could struggle in year one with his new team, just like he did at Colorado. Consider the new 4.5 win total a gift because now you can make your wager at plus money.

PICK: MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 4.5 WINS (+105)