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Can Michigan Go Over Win Total (9.5) While Playing 3rd-Hardest Schedule in the Nation?

Ryan Bolta

by Ryan Bolta in College Football

Updated Mar 18, 2021 · 1:19 PM PDT

Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines
Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have opened as small home favorites vs Wisconsin in Week 11. (Photo by Mark Goldman Icon Sportswire).
  • Public money has shifted the Michigan win total upward despite the Wolverines having the third-toughest schedule in college football
  • Can head coach Jim Harbaugh improve his 2-11 record against top-10 teams?
  • Here are three reasons why Michigan’s over/under is a must-bet

The Michigan Wolverines have the third-toughest schedule out of the 130 FBS teams according to SBD’s 2020 NCAAF strength-of-schedule rankings. Despite the rough road ahead, they’ll need to win 10 games to hit the OVER for their season win total.

2020 Big Ten Conference Win Totals

Team 2020 Win Total & Odds
Ohio State 10.5 (-210o/+175u)
Penn State 9.5 (-160o/+140u)
Wisconsin 9.5 (+150o/-170u)
Michigan 9.5 (+175o/-210u)
Minnesota 8.5 (-110o/-110u)
Nebraska 7.5 (-170o/+150u)
Indiana 7.5 (-110o/-110u)
Iowa 7.5 (+110o/-130u)
Northwestern 5.5 (-110o/-110u)
Purdue 5.5 (+125o/+145u)
Illinois 4.5 (-160o/+140u)
 Michigan State 4.5 (-125o/+105u)
Maryland 3.5 (-160o/+140u)
Rutgers 2.5 (-160o/+140u)

Odds taken June 10th. 

Can Michigan find a way to a 10-2 regular-season record (or better)? It could happen but I’m much more willing to pay the heavy juice on the UNDER and here’s why.

Jim Harbaugh Is On The Hot Seat

Trying to find where Jim Harbaugh has earned his $7.5 million annual salary is just about impossible. His record at Michigan is 47-18, which is fine, but a little digging, exposes the problems. He has a .440 win percentage against ranked opponents, a 2-11 record against teams in the top 10 and, of course, an 0-5 record against rival Ohio State.

Harbaugh has not been able to get the job done against the best competition.

Coaches often get the benefit of the doubt for their early years at a program while they land the recruits they want to play in their system. That time has long since passed for Harbaugh, who is entering his sixth full season at Ann Arbour, and the reality is, things are getting worse.

Michigan’s last two games against Ohio State were lost by a combined 52 points. They are likely to be a double-digit underdog in this year’s game, which should have anyone contemplating an OVER bet very nervous.

Who Will Replace Shea Patterson at QB?

Senior quarterback Shea Patterson wasn’t great in 2019, but at least he was a reliable veteran who had been playing NCAA football for a long stretch. This year’s quarterback won’t come with that resume. The battle is between junior Dylan McCaffrey and sophomore Joe Milton, with McCaffrey considered by many to have the upper hand, especially after much of the off-season was cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

McCaffrey was the back-up the last two years and saw limited playing time. He completed 51% of his 35 passes and, well, that’s about it on his resume. This is the front-runner for the job at a big-time school in a conference that has Justin Fields, Tanner Morgan, Sean Clifford, and Adrian Martinez.

For all the great recruiting Harbaugh has done, he has never been able to secure a top talent at the QB position and that could land Michigan in hot water once again in 2020.

Six Key Match-ups For Michigan

Trying to find the 10 wins for Michigan this year is a daunting task. They could win up home underdogs against Wisconsin and/or Penn State, and they have four even tougher match-ups on the road: at Washington, at Michigan State, at Minnesota, and finally the seemingly unwinnable contest at Ohio State to conclude the season.

The 2020 college football win totals are worth looking at right now and this one might be my favorite. How, with this schedule, did the Michigan’s win total get bet up from 9.0 games to 9.5?

There is considerable juice on the under, but consider it a blessing. You just got an extra half game for being patient and waiting it out. The time for patience has come and gone; bet the UNDER before the oddsmakers come to their senses.

PICK: Michigan UNDER 9.5 wins (-210)

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