Middle Tennessee State vs Toledo Odds – Bahamas Bowl Preview and Picks

• The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders will face the Toledo Rockets in the 2021 Bahamas Bowl on Friday, December 17th at 12:00pm EST
• The Blue Raiders are 10-point underdogs as of Wednesday morning
• Keep reading for odds, picks and a prediction for this game

2021 Bowl Season begins in the islands as the ESPN-owned Bahamas Bowl gets us underway on Friday, December 17th.

The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (6-6) will take on the Toledo Rockets (7-5) at Noon EST from Thomas A Robinson National Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for noon.

Oddsmakers expect Toledo to win this matchup, having them listed as 10-point favorites. Keep reading to see where the betting value is for this game.

Middle Tennessee vs Toledo Odds

Odds as of December 15 via DraftKings

MTSU vs Toledo: Season Breakdown

Toledo is on a three-game winning streak, having defeated Akron 49-14 in their most recent outing.

The Rockets had a better season than their 7-5 record would indicate, as they lost four games by three or less points. They came extremely close to a signature win against Notre Dame, eventually losing 32-29.

Middle Tennessee got off to a slow start this season, before going 4-2 in their last six games to finish the season on a strong note and become bowl eligible. Their last game might have been their crowning achievement of the season, as they fought back from a 14-point deficit at halftime to defeat Florida Atlantic, despite MTSU playing with their third and fourth string quarterbacks for the entire game.

Toledo’s Offense the Strength

Although Toledo has a balanced offensive unit, they are most lethal on the ground. The Rockets are led by Bryant Koback, a junior who is top five all time in program history in both rushing yards and touchdowns, along with Dequan Finn, a credible dual-threat quarterback who has proven to be a true weapon carrying the ball this season.

Dequan Finn tonight:

🚀 18-24
🚀 30 rushing yards
🚀 270 passing yards
🚀 3 TDs@ToledoRockets pic.twitter.com/lC6GbWBdbD

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) November 11, 2021

The Rockets also have a credible receiving target in Matt Landers, should they need to resort to their aerial attack. Landers, a 6’5 playmaker who transferred to Toledo by way of Georgia, has recorded four touchdown receptions over the past five games for the Rockets.

Blue Raiders’ Offense Playing Hurt

Middle Tennessee has been down to their third and fourth-string QB’s for a decent portion of the season, and they have done a commendable job of grinding out wins. However, they largely rely on their passing game and will likely run into trouble against a Toledo defense that has credible playmakers in their defensive backfield.

One of my favorite sleepers of the draft year so far. Toledo CB Sam Womack. And I love him for one big reason — BALL. SKILLS.

11 PBUs thus far and 1 INT for him. Dude’s just a playmaker. pic.twitter.com/L6KoKrU7Ia

— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) October 9, 2019

2021 Bahamas Bowl Best Bet

I don’t like the spread at all in this matchup, as it truly could go either way. The best play for this matchup is to take the Under (50.5 points) at -110 odds. Toledo will likely try to keep the ball on the ground against an MTSU defense that is elite at forcing turnovers, and they should find success with their rushing attack while also controlling time of possession.

When MTSU is on offense, however, they will likely struggle to get much of anything going between their third and fourth-string quarterbacks.

See who won today's dance off between @ToledoFB and @MT_FB at the #BahamasBowl Beach Bash. pic.twitter.com/cEOQa0M6gD

— Bahamas Bowl (@TheBahamasBowl) December 15, 2021

My prediction is for a final score of 28-14. That being said, even if it ends up being a little closer at 28-21 or if Toledo runs away with a 35-14 victory, the under ticket would still cash with both totals equaling 49 points.

In my estimation, this has all the makings of a classic “under” game. Both teams have playmakers across their respective defenses, the Rockets should focus on running the ball, and MTSU will most likely have trouble scoring.

• The Pick: Under 50.5 (-110)