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Ohio Favored by a Touchdown Over Miami (Ohio) in Battle for First Place in MAC East – Picks & Odds

Jake Mitchell

by Jake Mitchell in College Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 9:11 AM PDT

Peden Stadium at Ohio University
Peden Stadium at Ohio University will play host to Wednesday's pivotal MAC East battle. Photo by Dan Keck (flickr) [public domain].
  • Miami (OH) will travel to take on Ohio on Wednesday night (Nov. 6th)
  • Both teams hold 3-1 records in MAC play
  • The winner will take the lead in the MAC East and have the inside track to reach the conference title game

On Wednesday night (Nov. 6th, 5:00 PM ET), Miami Ohio (4-4, 3-1 MAC) to will travel to Athens for a huge MAC showdown with Ohio (4-4, 3-1 MAC). Both the Redhawks and Bobcats hold 3-1 records in the conference, and the winner of this matchup will take sole possession of 1st place in the MAC East.

They may hold identical records, but the Miami (OH) vs Ohio odds give the Bobcats a 7-point edge on Wednesday night.

Miami (OH) Redhawks vs Ohio Bobcats Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Miami (OH) Redhawks +7 (+102) +230 O 54.5 (-115)
Ohio Bobcats -7 (-122) -275 U 54.5 (-105)

Odds taken Nov. 5th.

Redhawks Employ a One-Dimensional Attack

The Redhawks employ a run-based attack, partially out of necessity. Quarterback Brett Gabbert completes only 53.1% of his throws, and while he’s only thrown five interceptions all season, he’s also thrown only five touchdown passes. Gabbert has, however, added three scores on the ground in 2019.

It is a host of running backs that is the driving force on the offense. Five backs have gotten significant snaps this season, and they have provided consistent production. Between Tyre Shelton, Jaylon Bester, Maurice Thomas, Davion Johnson, and Zach Kahn, this group gains 4.0 yards per carry. It hasn’t been an electric offensive season, but the Redhawk backs have been productive on the ground.

Unfortunately for Miami (OH), the one-dimensional nature of the offense also makes them predictable. On third down, the Redhawks convert only 30% of the time. When they face third-and-long, they don’t have the passing game to convert, and on third-and-short, everyone in the stadium knows what’s coming.

Nathan Rourke Leads the Way

Ohio’s offense is more dynamic, led by QB Nathan Rourke, one of the MAC’s best players. The senior is capping off his career with a strong 2019 campaign.

Through the air, Rourke has compiled 1,743 yards and 10 touchdowns. With his legs, he’s racked up 536 rushing yards, along with 8 rushing touchdowns.

O’Shaan Allison and De’Montre Tuggle have been big factors on the ground, as well, but make no mistake, this offense runs through Rourke.

What’s the Best Bet?

Statistically, Ohio holds an advantage in nearly every category. However, there is one factor that has skewed the numbers in favor of the Bobcats, and that’s strength of schedule.

In non-conference play, the Redhawks were blown out by Iowa (38-14), Cincinnati (35-13), and Ohio State (76-5). The Buckeyes are possibly the country’s best team, and Iowa and Cincinnati are both top-25 quality teams. Meanwhile, with Rhode Island, Pitt, Marshall, and UL Monroe Ohio’s non-conference slate wasn’t nearly as lopsided, and they still managed just a 1-3 record.

No sport has a smaller sample size than college football, and in Miami’s case, a few games against high-caliber opponents has greatly affected their scoring and efficiency numbers. This Miami (OH) squad is a better team than they get credit for, and getting a touchdown, the Redhawks are the team to side with on Wednesday night.

This line opened at +6.5, and it is possible that this line moves another half-point before kickoff. Either way, the Redhawks are being undervalued here, especially against an Ohio team that is 2-6 against the spread this season.

Pick: Miami (OH) +7.0 (+102)

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