Upcoming Match-ups

Oklahoma State vs Baylor Odds, Spread and Prediction

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in College Football

Updated Sep 28, 2022 · 7:00 AM PDT

Spencer Sanders TD celebration
Oklahoma State's Spencer Sanders (3) scores a touchdown in front of Brennan Presley (80) a college football game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the Arizona State Sun Devils at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. Oklahoma State won 34-17 Osu Vs Asu
  • #16 Baylor is a 2.5-point favorite over #9 Oklahoma State on Saturday, October 1st at 3:30 pm ET at McLane Stadium, in Waco, Texas
  • The Cowboys are off to a perfect 3-0 start, while the Bears have won back-to-back contests
  • Read below for the Oklahoma State vs Baylor odds, analysis and betting prediction

The Big 12 steals our attention in Week 5 of the college football season, as #9 Oklahoma State (3-0, 0-0 Big 12) travels to Baylor to face the 16th ranked Bears (3-1, 1-0 Big 12). The matchup is one of just five between ranked opponents on Saturday, and is easily one of the most compelling games on the slate.

The Cowboys enter play as one of the last 21 unbeaten teams in the country, but they’ll play the role of underdog this week in the college football odds.

#9 Oklahoma State vs #16 Baylor Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 (-115) +110 O 57 (-110)
Baylor Bears -2.5 (-105) -130 U 57 (-110)

Odds as of September 27th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get the DraftKings Sportsbook promo code

DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Sign Up Today & Receive Up to
$1,050 in Bonuses!


Excludes MA.
LOCK IN PROMO
SIGNUP PROMO
SIGN UP
& GET $1,050

BONUS BETS + DEPOSIT BONUS

GET PROMO

Baylor opened up as 1.5-point favorites, but the number has actually moved a point in their favor. The contest features a total of 57, while Fox will provide the broadcast coverage nationwide.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 pm ET at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas, with sunshine and 84 degree temperatures currently projected.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Analysis

The Cowboys steamrolled the competition in non-conference play. They posted a 3-0 record, outscoring the opposition by a total of 155-68. They’re fresh off a 63-7 pounding of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which saw starting quarterback Spencer Sanders throw just 16 times.

Sanders made the most of his attempts though, tossing for 242 yards and 4 TD. That brings his season-long marks to 916 passing yards and 10 TD through three games, making him a top-18 Heisman Trophy odds contender.

Sanders is also a threat on the ground, rushing for over 100 yards and three scores so far. Oklahoma State ranks 29th in the nation in offensive efficiency and leads the Big 12 in points per game.

The Cowboys narrowly missed out on the College Football Playoff last season after finishing 12-2, a record that included a loss to these same Bears in the Big 12 title game.

Last year Oklahoma State led the conference in scoring defense, and they’re among the leaders on that side of the ball once again. They’ve allowed only 24 points total in their last two outings, and while the 44 points they surrendered in Week 1 to Central Michigan may seem high, it’s important to note that a lot of that production came in garbage time with their backups on the field.

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Baylor meanwhile, has rebounded from its only loss of the season at a ranked BYU program, by routing Texas State and sneaking past Iowa State 31-24 last week. The Bears became the first Big 12 team to beat the Cyclones in their stadium since the Cowboys accomplished the feat in 2019.

Baylor checks in ranked 19th in offensive efficiency, while starting QB Blake Shapen is coming off one of the best games of his career. The sophomore threw for 238 yards and 3 TD versus Iowa State last week, completing 73% of his passes.

The key to slowing down Shapen and the Bears’ passing game will be pressure. Shapen has completed only 40% of his throws under duress this season, posting a quarterback rating that is 20 points lower than his season-long mark.

Oklahoma State hasn’t done a great job of creating pressure this season, but they have neutralized opponent’s running attacks. The Cowboys are yielding just 3.1 yards per carry, which could mean Shapen might have to shoulder the offensive burden once again.

One reason to be down on the Baylor offense is the lack of consistency. They’ve created only 55 plays of 10+ yards this season, and they rank 118th in marginal explosiveness.

On the other side of the ball, Baylor has been terrific, but they’ve yet to play an offensive as talented as Oklahoma State’s. They’re allowing only 16.8 points per game, and are fresh off a four-sack, two-turnover performance versus the Cyclones.

Oklahoma State vs Baylor Pick

This is a major revenge spot for Oklahoma State and a redemption opportunity for Sanders. He threw four interceptions in last year’s Big 12 title game loss to Baylor, but so far this year has done an excellent job of taking care of the football.

Sanders boasts a 10-to-1 TD-to-INT rate through three weeks, with just two turnover-worthy plays. If Sanders takes care of the football, Oklahoma State should prevail, just like they did in their previous two contests versus their rival before the conference championship.

The Cowboys are well rested after sitting out last week, and more talented overall. If this game was on a neutral field they’d be favored.

Pick: Oklahoma State Moneyline (+110)

Author Image