Upcoming Match-ups

Oregon 3-10 ATS When Laying 20-Plus Points Since 2015; Favored by 21 Over Visiting Buffaloes on Friday Night

Ryan Sura

by Ryan Sura in College Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 12:57 PM PDT

Oregon Ducks and Colorado Buffaloes waiting for the whistle
Does Colorado have the might to pull off an upset at Oregon on Friday night? Photo from Wikimedia Commons.[CCLicense]
  • Colorado has knocked off two ranked opponents this season (Nebraska & Arizona State)
  • Oregon’s sole loss came in Week 1 against then-#16 Auburn 27-21 in Dallas
  • Colorado upset Oregon 41-38 in 2016, and covered the +10.5-point spread

The Colorado Buffaloes (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 4-1 O/U) will charge into Autzen Stadium to take on the #10 Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 1-4 O/U) this Friday night in a Pac-12 matchup. The Buffs will try to recreate the magic they did in 2016, when they beat Oregon 41-38 in Eugene.

Oregon is coming off an underwhelming 17-7 win over California at home last week. Colorado was not as fortunate last week, as they fell to Arizona 35-30 at Folsom Field.

The Buffaloes have not been a 20+ point underdog since 2015, but now find themselves as a 21-point dog in the Colorado vs Oregon odds.

Colorado vs #10 Oregon Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Colorado +21 (-105) +925 O 58.5 (-115)
Oregon -21 (-115) -1400 U 58.5 (-105)

*Odds collected 10/10/19

Montez Magic in 2016

Steven Montez, made his first career start against Oregon almost three years ago. It was a game to remember for the kid from El Paso, Texas.

Montez threw for 333 yards and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 135 yards and a score, on Colorado’s way to beat Oregon on the road. Montez was the first player in Colorado’s history to throw for over 300 yards and rush for over 100 yards in the same game.

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The last time Colorado was a 20-plus point underdog was against UCLA in October 2015, when Josh Rosen was still a college quarterback for the Bruins. The Buffs covered the 23.5-point spread with ease as they narrowly lost to Rosen and the Bruins 35-31 on the road.

Colorado is in an almost identical spot this week against Oregon; a road conference game as a 20-plus point underdog against a ranked team with an NFL prospect at quarterback.

Dominant Ducks Defense

Quarterback Justin Herbert and the Ducks offense were stagnant last week in their win over California. They scored two offensive touchdowns, but turned the ball over three times, and were just 5-for-13 on third down.

Herbert threw for under 250 yards against the Golden Bears for the first time since Week 1 against Auburn.

Oregon’s defense has been so dominant that their offense has not had to be extravagant to win football games. They have the sixth-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing just 9.8 points per game.

Oregon reported this week that they will be without senior defensive end, Gus Cumberlander, for the rest of the season.

True freshman Kavyon Thibodeaux is replacing the senior on the edge. The 6’5″, 240-pound, Thibodeaux is a machine on the defensive line, recording two sacks in their last outing against California and being named Pac-12 Defensive Lineman of the Week.

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Colorado’s offense has scored 30 or more points in four games this season, and are averaging 447.0 yards of total offense per game. Unfortunately for the Buffs, their injury report listed multiple offensive starters as questionable. Star wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr, could miss his second game in a row with an abdominal injury. Running back K.D. Nixon and both tight ends, Brady Russell and Jalen Harris, are listed as questionable as well. With the absence of Shenault Jr. and Nixon last week, wide receiver Tony Brown took on the bulk of the offensive responsibilities catching 10 balls for 141 yards.

What’s the Best Bet?

Oregon is clearly the better team in this matchup, but they have always struggled to cover big spreads. Since 2018, Oregon is 1-5 ATS when laying 20 or more points, and 3-10 ATS on that same mark since 2015. Giving 21 points to a team that has scored with ease this year is a tough spot for Oregon, and that is why I am taking Colorado +21.

Head coach Mario Cristobal has not been great ATS with the Ducks. Cristobal is 7-12 ATS with Oregon, and 4-6 ATS at home. Colorado is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year, and 1-0 ATS on the road.

Mel Tucker has competed in every game this season as Colorado’s new head coach. Despite how good Oregon’s defense is, I still believe Colorado can keep this game within three scores. Montez is going to be reminiscent of his first start, and he will want to put on the same show he did three years ago.

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