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Oregon Odds to Win Pac-12 Now +200 With CJ Verdell Out for the Season – Any Value Betting the Ducks?

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in College Football

Updated Oct 7, 2021 · 7:14 PM PDT

CJ Verdell leaps away from defender
Oregon's CJ Verdell, right, leaps away from Stanford during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 7, 2020, in Eugene, Ore. (AP Photo/Chris Pietsch)
  • Oregon RB CJ Verdell is out for the year with a leg injury
  • Ducks’ Pac=12 Championship odds lengthen from season-best +100 to +200
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The Oregon Ducks lost more than their perfect record in Week 5 against Stanford.

Now, with star running CJ Verdell done for the year with a still-undisclosed lower leg injury, are the 8th-ranked Ducks built to absorb that loss and still claim the conference crown?

Oddsmakers definitely respect their chances, though they’ve acknowledged the loss, as Oregon has faded, into a tie with Arizona State in the latest Pac-12 odds.

Pac-12 Conference Winner Odds

Team Odds
Arizona State +200
Oregon +200
Utah +450
UCLA +850
Oregon State +900
Washington +1400
Stanford +3000
USC +3000
Washington State +10000
California +20000
Colorado +100000
Arizona +100000

Odds as of October 7 at FanDuel

Just a week earlier, the Ducks enjoyed their shortest odds to win the conference at +100. Let’s unpack and see if Oregon is a valuable pick.

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CJ the Centerpiece

Just a few weeks ago, Verdell put the Ducks on the National Championship contenders’ radar, after a virtuoso performance on the road at Ohio State. He rushed 20 times for 161 yards and a pair of scores while also catching a TD pass, as Oregon topped the Buckeyes 35-28.

While that’s his only 100+ yard performance on the year, Verdell was definitely bouncing back from a COVID-shortened, injury plagued 2020.

He leads the team with 78 carries for 406 rushing yards and six touchdowns, scoring a major in every game this season, before going down in the third quarter of a 31-24 upset loss at Stanford.

After back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons, the senior carried only 65 times for 285 yards and three TDs last year.

The running back room is going to be challenged, but they appear to be in good hands with Travis Dye. The junior has had a solid year, carrying 60 times for 382 yards — a healthy 6.4 yards per tote — and he’s found the endzone three times.

But the shifty Dye does his damage mostly in open space, the lightning to Verdell’s thunder. How the 5-foot-10, 190-pound back handles that workload could play a big part in their success.

They’re going to have to find someone to spell Dye, and three freshmen will get that chance. There’s no clear cut choice between Trey Benson, Byron Cardwell and Seven McGee, but Oregon has a bye week, so someone will get a chance to emerge in practice.

Pivotal Play

What makes Oregon a shakier choice now is the expected greater emphasis on QB play.

Anthony Brown was steady, yet unspectacular, and couldn’t pull out the win against the Cardinal. He was just 14-for-26 for 186 yards with one interception.

On the year, the senior is completing just 56.1% of his passes, while throwing for 950 yards and six TDs and one pick. He has also rushed for 198 yards on the year, with four TD’s.

Brown’s highest passing total this year was against Ohio State, when he tossed for 236 yards and two TD’s. With the emphasis on pounding the rock in the running game, he’s surpassed the 200-yard mark twice in five games this year.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s obviously not ideal that the Ducks are down their star, but they still have a very good roster, and may still be undefeated if star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux wasn’t ejected for targeting with 1:33 left in regulation against Stanford. While they sit third in their division, there’s plenty of time to win the North division and compete for the Pac-12 Title vs the South winner. They still have a head-to-head against the 2-0 Oregon State Beavers.

One obstacle in their plans is the possibility of Stanford finishing with the same record as Oregon, as they own the tiebreaker. That’s why all eyes should be on tomorrow night’s tilt between the Cardinal and the South-leading Arizona State Sun Devils.

If ASU, a heavy betting favorite Friday night, is able to down Stanford, Oregon’s path to the title game looks a little clearer if they take care of business the rest of the way. Form there, the Ducks’ major obstacle might be these same Sun Devils, who might have the most electric player in the conference in Jayden Daniels.

At these lengthened odds, it’s definitely worth a flier.

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