Over/Under in Texas A&M vs Georgia Drops from 47 to 44; Under Has Hit in 8 of 10 UGA Games This Season
- Texas A&M (7-3) face #4 Georgia (9-1) Saturday afternoon at Sanford Stadium
- The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 27 points in each of their last 5 games
- The Aggies are winless and have averaged only 19 points per game when facing ranked opponents this season
This Saturday (Nov. 23, 3:30 PM ET) the #4 Georgia Bulldogs will host Texas A&M at Sanford Stadium. The Texas A&M vs Georgia odds opened at UGA-13.5 with a 47.0 total. While the spread has stayed constant, the over/under has steamed down.
Have bettors finally caught on to a Georgia offense that seems incapable of hitting the over?
Texas A&M vs Georgia Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M | +13.5 (-110) | +390 | O 44 (-105) |
| #4 Georgia | -13.5 (-110) | -580 | U 44 (-115) |
Odds taken Nov. 21st.
The total has dropped three full points and, the reality is, it’s probably still too high. Here’s the case for why under 44.0 is still the play, and why bettors should jump on it now before it moves even further.
Bulldogs Are Average on Offense
Look at the efficiency rankings and you’ll see Georgia is ranked 14th on offense, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Look at the Bulldogs’ more recent performances and it’s bleak on that side of the football right now. In their last four games, they have put up 21, 27, 24, 21 points. In their loss to South Carolina, they only managed 17.
Who We Are | @FrommJake "Playing here—you're not playing for yourself. You're representing your family. You're representing the state of Georgia… And it's special.”#ATD #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/tV5DZFg4LH
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 20, 2019
Quarterback Jake Fromm has topped 200 passing yards in only two of those five games. There is little evidence to suggest they’ll become a fine-tuned machine against Texas A&M. After Fromm started the season with some pretty heavy draft hype, a lot of those conversations have been put on hold.
Georgia will likely score enough points to win this one but hitting the over seems fairly unlikely.
Aggies Have Struggled Against Strong Competition
For all the chatter you hear about how great the SEC is, the reality is that the conference is average at best this year. Texas A&M is the perfect example of a team that has spent time ranked this season but likely doesn’t deserve it. They have played three ranked teams and lost all three games. For the sake of this bet, it’s the offensive performance in those games that is the biggest cause for concern.
"Nowhere to hide" ?#ATD #GoDawgs pic.twitter.com/T0rCg5uO49
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 21, 2019
Against Clemson, Auburn and Alabama, the Aggies put up 19 points per game. In two of those three contests, they failed to reach the 21-point mark. Georgia has the 5th-ranked defense in college football. Things shouldn’t be any easier Saturday against Kirby Smart’s “boa constrictor,” as Chip Patterson calls it.
Georgia Under is 8-2 This Year
Early in the season, following trends can be tough due to small sample sizes. But by this point, there’s an edge that can be found in the numbers. Betting Georgia games to go under the number is 8-2 this year, which is one of the best bets in all of college football.
It would have been nice to jump on this one earlier in the week when the total was 47 but that doesn’t mean the value is gone at 44.
PICK: Texas A&M vs Georgia Under 44.0 (-115)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
