Penn State Favored by 3.5 at Iowa; Nittanies Have Won 5 Straight vs Hawkeyes – Picks & Odds

• Penn State (5-0) travels to Iowa (4-1) to take on the Hawkeyes this Saturday (Oct. 12)
• The Nittany Lions have outscored opponents by 198 points this year
• Penn State have won 5 straight meetings against Iowa including a 30-24 victory last year

Undefeated Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) has been one of the most dominant teams in college football this season, but they face a tough test under the lights at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday Night (7:30 PM ET, Oct 12) against the Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten).

Penn State vs Iowa Odds

*odds taken 10/10

The ESPN Football Power Index gives Penn State a 67.2% chance of winning the game and, with that in mind, I’m making the case for why laying 3.5 points is the right play.

History Is on James Franklin’s Side

Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin is 3-0 versus Iowa and the team’s success in the matchup dates back even further. The program has won five straight games over Iowa, meaning there won’t be a Penn State player on the field that doesn’t have an undefeated record against the Hawkeyes.

Through ? Games ⤵️#WeAre pic.twitter.com/Km4Luh6D0O

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 9, 2019

Last year, the Hawkeyes kept it close, but ultimately lost 30-24. The low total suggests it’ll be a slugfest again this year; yet, when you factor in the recent history of the matchup and how this year’s teams have performed, asking Iowa to stay within a field goal is an onerous request.

WR KJ Hamler Is A Budding Superstar

Kirk Ferentz was gushing about Penn State WR KJ Hamler this week and for good reason. The wideout already has 19 receptions for 394 yards and 4 TDs this season. Iowa has the 12th-most efficient defense in the country but that will be tested by the 5’9 sophomore.

Whatever he lacks in size he makes up for in skill and quickness, two things the Hawkeyes may struggle to contain.

He is 5-9, 176.

He runs a 4.28 40-yd dash.

He tore his ACL 1st series of his senior year.

He began training for football at age 4.

He is Stefon Diggs, DeSean Jackson & Steve Smith rolled into one.

He is KJ Hamler.

"He is amazing."https://t.co/x5NtgxrD2Q #PennState #WeAre pic.twitter.com/17VLrsHlLt

— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) October 1, 2019

Hamler is catching passes from Sean Clifford, who has been steady in the early going this year. He has a 12-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while throwing for 1,443 yards.

The tandem of Hamler and Clifford will be relied upon if the run game struggles, which could happen against a stout Iowa defense. The good news is the Hawkeyes likely won’t score much, so even average production from PSU’s two stars could be enough.

Iowa Offense Likely to Struggle … Again

Iowa held Michigan to 10 points last week but fell 10-3 in what was one of the most unwatchable games of the season. It takes a certain level of ineptitude to look worse than the Wolverines on offense, but that’s exactly what happened.

Things don’t get any easier this week against a Penn State team that ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency.

Which color are you wearing Saturday night? pic.twitter.com/S6ZK9h59jp

— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 9, 2019

Yetur Gross-Matos leads the way for the Nittany D with 5.5 sacks. But this is a deep unit which boasts six different players with 20 or more tackles. There isn’t a weak spot to pick on for Iowa QB Nate Stanley, which means he could be in for another long afternoon in the pocket trying to figure it all out.

I’m not comfortable betting the total because this could be a slugfest, but I do think Penn State will muster enough on offense to cover the number. They’ve won five straight by a combined 198 points; expect that number to climb by at least four on Saturday night.

PICK: Penn State -3.5 (-105)