Penn State Laying 6.5 at Minnesota in Battle of Unbeatens; Gophers Have Won 5 Straight ATS

• Undefeated Penn State and Minnesota square off in Minneapolis on Nov. 9th
• The game has major implications in both the Big Ten standings and national-title picture
• A 6.5-point home underdog, Minnesota has won five-straight ATS after starting 0-2-1

College Gameday might not be coming to Minneapolis this weekend, but there’s still a premier football game to be played between No. 4 Penn State and No. 17 Minnesota (Sat., Nov 9, 12:00 PM ET). \

For Penn State, it’s a chance to keep pace with No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten East. For Minnesota, the lowest unbeaten team in the four-team playoff rankings, it’s a chance to earn some respect.

Speaking of Minnesota not getting any respect, the Golden Gophers are underdogs by nearly a touchdown at home, according to the updated Penn State vs. Minnesota odds.

Odds taken Nov. 7.

Minnesota Is Crushing the Number

Good teams win and great teams cover, right? If that’s true, Minnesota has been a great team for a while now, having won and covered the spread each of its past five games.

The Gophers were cozy victors in four of those games, winning by 23 or more points in each. In the other game, when Minnesota was a two-point road underdog, they beat Purdue by seven.

Minnesota's Tanner Morgan went 21-22 (.955 comp pct) with 4 pass TDs as @GopherFootball beat Purdue 38-31.

It's the best completion percentage in a game in @BigTen history (min. 20 attempts).

The Gophers are 4-0 for the first time since 2013. pic.twitter.com/b9DBGiTDm5

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 29, 2019

Penn State has been less effective ATS, going back and forth between wins and losses each of its past seven games.

All of those ATS losses have come on spreads of -7.5 or greater, including a -28.5 spread against Purdue on Oct. 5 — the week after Minnesota was an underdog against Purdue.

Minnesota Could See a Starting LB Return

Kamal Martin was starting to put together a breakout senior season with the Gophers, until he suffered a knee injury that kept him out of Minnesota’s most-recent game. To that point, he’d compiled 46 total tackles, two forced fumbles and two interceptions in just five games.

Notebook: #Gophers linebacker Kamal Martin practiced last week but remains "game-time decision" vs. Penn State; views on where Minnesota could debut in College Football Playoff ranking come Tuesday; more items. https://t.co/weRjkCFmKK

— Andy Greder (@andygreder) November 4, 2019

Coming off a bye week should help Martin’s chances of playing, but as of the time of this post, he was still considered a “game-time decision.”

Penn State Is More Proven

There is a reason Minnesota is stuck at No. 17 in the College Football Playoff rankings: voters haven’t seen the Gophers prove themselves yet. Yes, they are 8-0, but that includes a win against an FCS school and four wins against teams with losing records.

Penn State, on the other hand, has shown an ability to beat competent competition. The Nittany Lions already have two wins over ranked opponents — Iowa and Michigan — and boast the 35th-strongest schedule out of 130 teams in the nation. (Minnesota’s strength of schedule is 103rd.)

?️ #MICHvsPSU Top Highlights#WeAre pic.twitter.com/y3qNnL1MxG

— Penn State Football (@PennStateFball) October 20, 2019

Penn State also has a substantial edge in ESPN’s team efficiency ratings, ranking fourth overall compared to Minnesota slotting in at No. 18.

Decision Time

The Golden Gophers are riding an ATS hot streak, but they’ve also played a butter-soft schedule. Penn State is battle tested and has won all three of its ATS matchups of -6.5 or less.

Penn State has also gone under in seven of its past eight Big Ten games, so if you believe in the Nittany Lions, you might want to consider betting on a low scoring game, as well.

Pick: Penn State -6.5 (-120); Under 48.0 (-110)