Penn State vs Ohio State Total Drops from 59.5 to 57; Is the Over Now the Best Bet?

• Penn State (9-1) faces Ohio State (10-0) on Saturday (Nov. 23) at 12:00 ET at Ohio Stadium
• Defensive end Chase Young returns for the Buckeyes after serving a two game suspension
• Ohio State has played seven teams ranked in the top 51 defensively and have averaged over 48 points scored in those games

First place in the Big Ten East is on the line when the #9 Penn State Nittany Lions travel to Ohio Stadium in Columbus to face #2 Ohio State (Saturday, Nov. 23). The winner

The betting public has shifted the over/under and I see value fading the public money.

Penn State vs Ohio State Odds

Odds taken Nov. 21st.

The Penn State vs Ohio State odds show the movement in the total from 59.5 all the way down to 57.0. This game is going over the number and now you’re getting some extra cushion if you hop on board and bet it. Why am I so confident? Here’s the breakdown.

Got the dub on the road. 1️⃣0️⃣-⭕‼️#ToughLove #GoBucks pic.twitter.com/w1KCBs8RFo

— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 18, 2019

Good Defenses Are No Match For Buckeyes Offense

Unlike many of their counterparts atop the College Football Playoff rankings, Ohio State has not played a cupcake schedule this season. In fact, seven of their 10 games have been against teams that are ranked inside the top 51 on defense. Wisconsin (6th) is the best of the bunch, while Florida Atlantic sits at number 51. In those games Ohio State has totaled more than 48 points per game.

All of Justin Fields 41 TD’s pic.twitter.com/4mhbsUOOzH

— The Buckeye Nut (@TheBuckeyeNut) November 18, 2019

Quarterback Justin Fields has 31 passing touchdowns and only one interception. He’s also added 10 more touchdowns on the ground, which is a nice complement to star running back J.K. Dobbins, who has 1,289 rushing yards and 15 total TDs.

The dynamic duo has proven they won’t be stopped no matter the competition. A home date against Penn State shouldn’t be any more difficult than Wisconsin or some of the other defensive matchups they’ve faced this year.

Can Chase Young’s Return Help the Defense?

With their star defensive end out of the lineup, the Buckeyes allowed 35 combined points to lowly Maryland and even-more-lowly Rutgers. Chase Young is back from his two game suspension and should certainly help, but Penn State is the best offense Ohio State has faced this season. The Nittany Lions should put up some points and, even if it isn’t a large number, it should get high enough to help push this one over.

Our guy @youngchase907 is named a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, presented annually to the nation’s top defensive player.#GoBucks #ToughLove pic.twitter.com/WAReNt5B8j

— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 20, 2019

Quarterback Sean Clifford is more than competent and, while he may not have the gaudy numbers Fields’ does, he still has 22 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. Expect Clifford to hook up with star wide receiver KJ Hamler enough times to keep Penn State moving the chains.

Hamler left last week’s game against Indiana with a head/neck injury, but coach James Franklin was optimistic he’d be back for the biggest game of the year.

Bet the Over Confidently

The reality is you probably missed your chance to take advantage of a historic Ohio State ATS run. They won eight straight games ATS but the oddsmakers have caught on. They were laying 52.5 against Rutgers and failed to cover. Now they are laying 18.5 against a top-10 team, which is enough to make any bettor squeamish.

Ignore the spread and bet this game to go over, especially if word comes down that Hamler is playing. The over is 5-4-1 in Ohio State games this season and I’m confident this one will be high scoring, as well.

PICK: Penn State/Ohio State Over 57 (-110)