Quarterbacks Are Dominating the Heisman Trophy Race; Is Tua Worth +150?

• We’ve updated our 2018 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker
• Where did all the running backs go?
• Is Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa worth +150?

Week 3 of college football is in the books, and accordingly we’ve updated the 2018 Heisman Trophy Odds Tracker. Here are the biggest takeaways from all the numbers we saw.

2018 Heisman Trophy Odds

And here are the odds from one of our top-rated sportsbooks:

2018 Heisman Trophy Odds Top 5 Contenders

Tua is now approaching even odds, and it’s not even the end of September. Surely, this will persist!

Quarterbacks Have Taken Over the 2018 Heisman Trophy Race

Early in the season, most of the top Heisman Trophy candidates were running backs. Jonathan Taylor and JK Dobbins were the early favorites, listed at an average +600, and Bryce Love was just behind them at +700. The only quarterbacks in the top five were Tua Tagovailoa (+700) and Jake Fromm (+1200). Travis Etienne, Cam Akers, and Rodney Anderson featured highly on the odds sheet.

Since then, almost all running backs have taken a nose dive. JK Dobbins, once the favorite, moved to an average of +4200 at our last update. Cam Akers is at +10000. Travis Etienne is at +7500.  Only Jonathan Taylor bravely soldiers on, although it’s probably not a good sign that some oddsmakers still spells his name wrong.

It’s not a great time to be a running back, but we sort of knew that already. Of the 18 Heisman Trophies awarded since the turn of the Millenium, 15 went to quarterbacks. Two of the three awarded to running backs went to Alabama running backs, and Alabama has all but abandoned its run-centred identity.

Is Tua Tagovailoa Worth +150 Odds?

That number is a little silly, especially for this early in the season. So much can happen in the remaining ten games on Alabama’s schedule, and there’s so many other exceptional players out there.

That said, Tua is performing exceptionally well. Look at how well he places this ball:

Look at the precision on this throw by Tua pic.twitter.com/vDTfNn9bjf

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) September 15, 2018

One day he will ascend to the highest peak of quarterbacking: releasing the ball before the wide receiver is out of his break. That will be a truly awful day for his opponents. I predict it will happen when Alabama is down a touchdown against your team, preferably in the Playoff.

There’s a reason that the September Heisman is a meme in college football. Starting the season off strong doesn’t guarantee that you’ll finish that way, or finish the season at all. This is still a violent sport, and running around doing Tua Tagovailoa things does carry a (rather high) degree of risk. Betting on him at +150 is a huge leap of faith, and underestimates the probability of any number of things. Bettors should look elsewhere, but hopefully not to a running back.