Redbox Bowl Picks & Odds; California a 6.5-Point Favorite Over Illinois

• California has won two games in a row while Illinois has back-to-back losses
• Illinois’ offense is 120th in the nation in total yards while California’s is 117th
  
• The low-scoring Golden Bears are laying 6.5 points in a game with a total of just 43.0

The California Golden Bears (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12) are 6.5-point favorites over the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6, 4-5 Big Ten) in the 2019 Redbox Bowl set for 4:00 PM ET on Monday, Dec. 30, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., and it is a game that matches teams on either end of the momentum spectrum.

Illinois vs California Odds

Odds taken Dec. 20

Illinois dropped back-to-back games to finish the regular season, losing 19-10 at Iowa then getting knocked off at home by Northwestern, 29-10, as a 6.5-point favorite.

California finished by winning consecutive games on the road, rallying for a 24-20 victory at Stanford in The Big Game and then notching a 28-18 win over UCLA.

The line opened in the range of 5.5-6.5 points and movement suggests more money has been going toward California. The Golden Bears not only have a better record but will be playing 80 minutes from its campus in Berkeley.

Offenses Are Offensive

The over/under is just 43 and that isn’t surprising in light of the teams having two of the worst offenses in college football. Illinois is 120^th of 130 teams in Division I in total offense with an average of 319.7 yards a game. California isn’t much better at 323.2 YPG, which ranks 117^th.

However, the Fighting Illini are scoring 27.3 points a game, which ranks 79^th. The Golden Bears are 116^th with a 20.1 mark.

Here is how Illinois and California compare in ESPN’s Football Power Index:

California’s Weaver Dominant

The best player on the field should be California linebacker Evan Weaver, the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year.

Weaver has 172 tackles, including 95 solos, and his average of 14.3 stops per game leads the nation. The senior also broke the school’s single-season record, which was set by Hardy Nickerson in 1985 and had stood for 34 years.

Just a good old-fashioned, All-American throwback!

Congrats @Weavin_it on being named AP First Team All-American! pic.twitter.com/GXP8yrIyUp

— Cal Football (@CalFootball) December 16, 2019

A total of 11.5 of those tackles have been for losses. Weaver also has 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles, and three passes defensed.

Illinois Unsettled at QB

Illinois has an unsettled quarterback situation as starter Brandon Peters is listed as questionable after missing the loss to Northwestern with a concussion. The graduate transfer from Michigan has completed 54.6 percent of his passes for 1,611 yards and 17 touchdowns while being intercepted seven times.

Backup Matt Robinson threw for just 108 yards against Northwestern, completing eight of 17 attempts.

Running back Christopher Brown Jr. has been a playmaker for California with his team-high 11 touchdowns. He has rushed for 794 yards on 188 carries and added 19 receptions for 149 yards.

Quarterback Chase Gerbers, who has thrown for an even 1,500 yards, became a Cal folk hero with his game-winning 16-yard touchdown scramble to beat Stanford with 1:19 left. It was the Golden Bears’ first win over their archrival since 2009.

Programs Looking Up

Illinois is playing in a bowl for the first since 2014 and a victory wound clinch its first winning season since 2011.

Only 1️⃣3️⃣ days until @IlliniFootball is at @LevisStadium for Game 1️⃣3️⃣! We need you there, Illini Nation! #JointheFight #Illini vs. Cal | December 30 | 3 pm

? https://t.co/UNchBHIu0r pic.twitter.com/lE6FJUq73E

— Illinois Athletics (@IlliniAthletics) December 17, 2019

The Fighting Illini have made progress under coach Lovie Smith this year after going 9-27 in his first three seasons. Before losing its last two games, Illinois had a four-game winning streak that was its longest in Big Ten play in 18 years and started with an upset of Rose Bowl-bound Wisconsin.

California is making its second straight bowl appearance under third-year coach Justin Wilcox. The last time the Golden Bears went bowling in consecutive seasons was during a seven-year stretch from 2003-09.

Points Could Be Scarce

Illinois is 8-4 against the spread this season and had a six-game ATS winning streak going before the loss to Northwestern. Seven of its 12 games have gone under.

California is an even 6-6 against the number but has been the winning side in three of its past four games. Eight of its 12 games have gone under.

Illinois has a 7-3 advantage in the all-time series but the teams haven’t played since 2005.

Betting the under seems like the right play here but there is little value with the total so low. Let’s take the points in what figures to be a low-scoring game.

The pick: Illinois +6.5 (-104)