Southern Miss vs Tulane Picks & Odds: Green Wave Favored by a Touchdown in Armed Forces Bowl
- Tulane has reached a bowl game in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1979-80
- Southern Mississippi backed into a bowl game after ending the season with two blowout losses
- Read below for game analysis and betting advice on the Armed Forces Bowl on Jan. 4th
The Armed Forces Bowl takes place this Saturday (Jan. 4th, 11:30 AM ET) at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas, pitting the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (7-5, 5-3 C-USA) against the Tulane Green Wave (6-6, 3-5 AAC).
When Tulane left Conference-USA for the American Athletic Conference a handful of years ago, it meant their occasional meetings with Southern Mississippi would be put on hold. But Saturday’s tilt will give these former conference foes a chance to square off again for the first time since 2010.
Both teams enter the game cold, and not just because they haven’t played in over a month. Southern Miss lost its final two games by three scores each, while Tulane lost five of its final six games. The Southern Miss. vs. Tulane odds give a big edge to the Green Wave, nonetheless.
Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Mississippi | +220 | +7.0 (-115) | Over 56.5 (-110) |
| Tulane | -260 | -7.0 (-105) | Under 56.5 (-110) |
Odds taken Dec. 30.
Recent Bowl History
Last season, Tulane won its first bowl game since 2002 — in only its third bowl appearance in that span — with a win over the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns. Starting quarterback Justin McMillan and running back Darius Bradwell led the way.
Louisiana Football falls to Tulane in the #CureBowl 41-24
Check out the full game highlights here: https://t.co/iDdUo2aab0 pic.twitter.com/q5x6WWbuWo
— Andrew Clay (@AndrewClayTV) December 16, 2018
Southern Miss did not go bowling last season after three-straight appearances from 2015-17. The Golden Eagles’ last postseason win came in 2016, ironically also over Louisiana.
Who Will Run The Game?
The biggest battle of this matchup might be between Tulane’s deep, dynamic run offense and Southern Miss’s stingy rush defense.
The Green Wave rush for 249.8 yards per game on a highly efficient 5.3 yards per carry. McMillan, a dual-threat quarterback, leads the ground attack with 704 yards and 12 touchdowns.
FNS Rewind Profile ⏪:
Justin McMillan | QB | HS: Cedar Hill
3 ⭐️ QB (DT) [247] | FNS Legend ? | 2x UIL State Champion?(‘13 & ‘14) | Second-Team All-District 7-5A (‘13) | Accounted for 5,546 PaYd & 66 PaTD ?(‘13 & ‘14) | Played at LSU ?(‘15-‘17)
— Friday Night Stars (@friday_stars) July 15, 2019
On the other side, Southern Miss is allowing only 111.8 rush yards per game at 3.5 yards per carry. Tulane has rushed for over 200 yards in each of its past four games, so this will certainly be a game-within-the-game worth watching.
Key Questionables
Both teams have a few critical players listed as questionable heading into this matchup. Even though they have had a month to rest, this is common because some guys are contemplating what’s in their best interest ahead of the NFL draft.
For Tulane, their top-two running backs — Darius Bradwell and Corey Dauphine — are questionable. They combined for 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns this year. The good news for Tulane is that they have a balanced rushing attack; nine players found the end zone this year.
For Southern Miss, starting running back De’Michael Harris (838 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns) is questionable, as are starting linebackers Racheem Boothe and Swayze Bozeman.
Down goes Tagovailoa! SACKED by Swayze Bozeman! ? pic.twitter.com/rZ0kxlhu84
— Southern Miss FB (@SouthernMissFB) September 21, 2019
Boothe and Bozeman both had 49 total tackles, tied for fourth on the Golden Eagles, as well as a combined seven sacks and three fumble recoveries.
ATS Analysis
Tulane went 8-4 against the spread, including 3-1 as a single-digit favorite.
Southern Miss went 6-6 ATS, including 1-1 as a single-digit underdog. The Golden Eagles were 8-point underdogs in their most recent game, a 34-17 loss to Florida Atlantic.
A victory to host the Conference Championship next Saturday! ☑?
Roll those cinematic highlights?
? https://t.co/r90uBx2H2T #WinningInParadise pic.twitter.com/F4rY4QH9Uz— FAU Football (@FAU_Football) December 2, 2019
Decision Time
The status of both team’s key questionable players will have an impact, but as it stands right now, the best pick is Tulane. Potentially missing their top-two running backs is daunting, but this game could prove to help them both improve their stock ahead of draft day.
Southern Miss’s key questionable players have less impressive backups, which is concerning.
Also, take the under in this one. The under has hit in five-straight Tulane games and three-straight Southern Miss games. The current total of 56.5 gets you over a few key numbers.
Pick: Tulane, -7.0 (-105); Under 56.5 (-110)
Jordan Horrobin is a sports journalist whose MLB, NHL, NFL and NCAA work has appeared in outlets such as The Athletic, MLB.com, the Detroit Free Press and more. He is currently based in Toronto, also working as a contributor for Forbes.com and a freelance editor for Sportsnet.
