Tagovailoa Now Odds-On Heisman Favorite, But Still +145 Odds; Hurts as Long as +350
- Heisman Trophy Odds are fluctuating as the season approaches the midway mark
- Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa is the current favorite
- What candidates possess betting value?
Last year Clemson upset Alabama to win the College Football Playoff. Some media reported it more like Trevor Lawrence beat Tua Tagovailoa.
Despite two standout quarterbacks competing for the title, it was another signal caller, Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray who won last season’s Heisman Trophy.
Murray became the first pick in the NFL draft, while Trevor and Tua headed back to campus and became the early favorites for this year’s Heisman.
Though the Tigers and Tide are both unbeaten, the current 2019 Heisman Odds show Tua as a significant favorite, with Trevor now an afterthought.
So, should you bet on Tagovailoa, the favorite for a reason, take a big price on Lawrence, who hasn’t been as sharp this season but still has time to prove himself, or maybe someone else? Let’s look at the updated odds.
Odds to Win 2019 Heisman Trophy
| Team | Book 1 Odds | Book 2 Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovaioa (Alabama) | -150 | +145 |
| Joe Burrow (LSU) | +300 | +400 |
| Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) | +350 | +325 |
| Justin Fields (Ohio State) | +1200 | +800 |
| Jake Fromm (Georgia) | +2000 | +2000 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin) | +2000 | +850 |
| Trevor Lawrence (Clemson) | +3300 | +5000 |
| Sam Ehlinger (Texas) | +4000 | +4500 |
| D’Andre Swift (Georgia) | no line | +4500 |
| J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State) | no line | +4500 |
*Odds taken 10/08/19
Remember, this is a popularity contest. No, a quarterback is not always the best player in the country. That said, a QB has won the award three straight seasons and eight times in the last nine years. More or less you need to be a signal caller on a playoff bound team to win. So where does that leave us?
The Favorite: Tua Tagovaioa
There may be some question over how the NFL will deal with a left handed quarterback, but Tua’s results at Alabama are incredible.
Since taking over at halftime of the title game two years ago and leading the Crimson Tide to victory, Tua has passed for nearly 6,000 yards and 66 touchdowns.
This year he is completing a gaudy 76% of his passes and has 23 touchdown tosses with no interceptions, while also adding two scores on the ground. He leads the NCAA in scoring throws, is second in passing efficiency, and third in yards per game.
Alabama has made easy work of their competition thus far. If they beat LSU on November 9th at home, and Auburn in the Iron Bowl, they may be in the playoff regardless of how the SEC Title Game goes.
Primary Challengers: Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts
Burrow, who spent two years mostly on the bench at Ohio State before transferring to LSU, was a big longshot before the season began. When you lead the country with a 78% completion percentage, do so while connecting on more than 25 passes a game, and are second in the NCAA in touchdown tosses and passing yards, people take notice.
LSU has Florida, Auburn, and Alabama to face over the next month. If they perform well, Burrow will stick among the favorites. If he leads them to a win at Alabama, he may become the chalk.
Being a quarterback at Oklahoma is a great way to win the Heisman these days. Murray followed Baker Mayfield, and now Hurts is piloting the Sooners. Hurts departed Alabama when Tua took his job, and so far the Sooners are grateful.
Hurts leads the nation in passing efficiency, and yards per completion. He is second in the nation in rushing yards per carry. And oh by the way, he’s throwing for a ton of yards, and passing for touchdowns too.
Oklahoma battles Texas on Saturday. If they win, the chances of being in the Big 12 Title Game are high.
Longshots: Justin Fields, Jonathan Taylor, Trevor Lawrence
Whoever emerges from the Big 10 is going to have an argument.
There is a thought that Ohio State might be the nation’s best team, and if that is the case, Fields is going to be in the running.
On October 26th Wisconsin travels to Columbus to face the Buckeyes. If the unbeaten Badgers are perfect at that point, and win on the road, they’ll likely do so because OSU has difficulty stopping Jonathan Taylor. That would make him the hot name.
And let’s not forget Lawrence. Sure, Clemson’s offense has looked sluggish this year, but they remain unbeaten. Lawrence is behind in the race right now, but if the Tigers go 13-0, and their schedule sets up well to do so, he needs only to be strong down the stretch and cap it with a monster ACC Title Game to be in the race.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
