Tua Tagovailoa’s Heisman Odds Sink to +400 After Ankle Injury; Joe Burrow Now Favored

• Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa suffered an ankle injury in Week 8
• Tagovailoa will miss next week’s game against Arkansas, at least
• The Crimson Tide QB is no longer favored to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy

Alabama starting QB Tua Tagovailoa is no longer favored to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy after suffering an ankle injury in Week 8. Tagovailoa will miss next week’s game against Arkansas. It’s unclear if he will return to face LSU on Nov. 9th.

Tagovailoa has been favored to win the Heisman since the odds first opened, and he became the odds-on favorite just last week. But he’s now the third-favorite to win the trophy behind LSU’s Joe Burrow and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts.

Will this injury cost Tagovailoa the Heisman? Are Burrow or Hurts the better bet in the Heisman odds after Week 8?

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds in Sportsbooks

*Odds collected 10/21/19.

Tagovailoa Injured Against Tennessee 

Alabama’s star pivot suffered the injury in Week 8 against Tennessee. He rolled his ankle late in the first half as he was sacked by Tennessee defensive lineman Greg Emerson. Tagovailoa stayed in the game briefly, but soon limped off the field to the medical tent. He eventually went to the locker room and was taken to the hospital.

Tua Tagovailoa to the medical tent after this nasty looking ankle injury. pic.twitter.com/AM9cuV11Dx

— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) October 20, 2019

Alabama coach Nick Saban released a statement after the game saying Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain and will miss the team’s next game against Arkansas. The statement also details a surgical procedure that Tagovailoa underwent.

“Tua Tagovailoa suffered a high-ankle sprain last night against Tennessee,” Saban said after the game. “Our physicians performed a successful tightrope procedure on his right ankle this morning. This is the same injury, but the opposite ankle that Tua injured last season. Tua will miss next week’s game against Arkansas, but we expect a full and speedy recovery.”

The positive news is that it isn’t ankle he injured in last year’s SEC championship game. This is still very concerning for Alabama fans and anyone who has money on Tagovailoa winning the Heisman.

Tagovailoa Could Return Against LSU

Tagovailoa has been ruled out for Alabama’s Week 9 game against Arkansas, but it sounds like the Crimson Tide QB could return for the highly anticipated matchup with LSU on Nov. 9th.

Alabama has a bye week after after they face the Razorbacks, so Tagovailoa could potentially miss just the one game. According to teammates, Tua is confident he’ll be returning for the matchup with Joe Burrow and the Tigers.

According to Terrell Lewis, Tua Tagovailoa told teammates after the game, “I’ll be back for LSU”

— Matt Zenitz (@mzenitz) October 20, 2019

Tagovailoa underwent the same tightrope procedure last December on the opposite ankle, so we have some context to the recovery process. Tagovailoa was able to return to running 10 days after the surgery last season and returned to practice 13 days out.  His return to game action came 28 days removed from the surgery against Oklahoma in the CFP semifinal.

Tagovailoa wasn’t at 100 percent when he returned last season, and there’s a good chance it’ll be the same way this year if he returns for the LSU game. It would be an even shorter recovery period of just 20 days. He still has a shot at the trophy if he can outduel Burrow, but betting Tagovailoa for the Heisman is no longer a safe pick.

Tagovailoa’s Heisman Odds Plummet 

Tagovailoa has been favored to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy since the odds first opened, but he is now the third-favorite in sportsbooks.

His Heisman odds were at +115 in sportsbooks heading into Week 8, now fallen to +400. His odds have dropped because the other candidates are going to have 1.5 more games to add to their numbers and Tua’s performance when he returns is no guarantee.

Saban also likely won’t play Tagovailoa as much when he returns to ensure he’s healthy for the playoffs.

Some perspective: Tagovailoa will have about a week shorter to get back in time for @AlabamaFTBL's Nov. 9 game vs. @LSUfootball than he did a year ago for the Oklahoma @CFBPlayoff game when he was recovering from the same surgery on the other ankle. https://t.co/Wydc1LZlSe

— Chris Low (@ClowESPN) October 20, 2019

According to Heisman.com, FSU QB Charlie Ward in 1993 was the last player to miss a game and still win the Heisman. Despite missing a game with a rib injury, Ward still threw for 3,032 yards and 27 touchdowns with just four interceptions. Ward received a whopping 1,622 total Heisman votes and and easily won the trophy over Tennessee QB Heath Shuler.

This year is nowhere close to being a blowout year. Tagovailoa’s ankle injury wouldn’t have such a major impact on his Heisman chances if it weren’t such a strong year for QBs in CFB.

Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts Now Favored

LSU’s Joe Burrow and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts are very talented quarterbacks who have been right behind Tagovailoa in the Heisman for the last month. Burrow is now the Heisman favorite, while Hurts is not far back.

While Tagovailoa wasn’t able to record a TD in Week 8, both Burrow and Hurts strengthened their Heisman cases with strong  performances.

Burrow went 25-of-32 for 327 yards and four touchdowns in a 36-13 win over Mississippi State. The Tigers QB now has thrown 29 TD passes this year, which sets an LSU season record. He’s only thrown three interceptions and ranks second in the nation with a 216.2 pass efficiency rating.

Hurts, meanwhile, showcased his lethal dual-threat ability once again in a 52-14 victory against West Virginia. The Alabama transfer went 16-of-17 for 316 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 75 yards and two more scores.  Hurts recorded a career-high passing efficiency rating of 308.5 in the game and leads the country with a 226.1 rating.

Burrow and Hurts have put up impressive numbers every week, so barring any injuries, Tagovailoa just won’t be on the same level as these two when the season concludes.

Heisman Analysis After Week 8

Tagovailoa’s ankle injury is a major blow to his Heisman hopes. The Alabama QB could still win the trophy, but Burrow and Hurts are the better bets.

Even if Tagovailoa returns for the clash with LSU, he likely won’t be at 100 percent and coach Saban will want to rest him more in the following weeks. The Crimson Tide QB won’t have the impressive numbers that Burrow and Hurts will have at the end of the season.

Hurts should continuing padding his numbers in the coming weeks against some lackluster Big 12 defenses, but Burrow has the best value right now. The LSU QB has huge upcoming tests against Alabama and Auburn, so now is the best time to bet on him before his odds potentially get even shorter.