UCF’s Win Total Drops by a Full Game to 9.0 Amid QB Injuries

• UCF won 25 consecutive games over the last two seasons before dropping the 2019 Fiesta Bowl to LSU

• The Knights have enough returning talent to challenge for a third straight AAC title

• But an injury to quarterback McKenzie Milton hurt the team’s 2019 odds and led to a drop in their win total

UCF has been a powerhouse over the last two seasons, recording 25 consecutive wins (before losing the Fiesta Bowl to LSU), back-to-back American Athletic Conference titles, and consecutive appearances in New Year’s Six bowl games.

There is some uncertainty at the quarterback position heading into the upcoming season, though, as injured QB McKenzie Milton is expected to miss the entire year, and his likely replacement, Darriel Mack, broke his ankle in June. 

UFC’s win total has dropped a full game to 9.0 at two online sportsbooks, while being listed at 9.5 at a third. (View the full list of 2019 College Football Win Totals in the link.)

2019 UCF Win Total Odds

Odds collected on 08/09/19.

Replacing McKenzie Milton Is Key

Milton is recovering from a gruesome nerve injury in his right leg, which he suffered last November against UCS. As for Mack, coach Josh Heupel said his ankle injury is not season-ending, but there’s no timetable for his return.

That means the competition is down to: Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, redshirt freshman Quadry Jones, and true freshman Dillon Gabriel.

Coach Josh Heupel talked today about his QB battle.
Upshot: It's still early. #UCF pic.twitter.com/YCPTfxMZWC

— Brian Murphy (@Spokes_Murphy) August 5, 2019

Wimbush will likely get the call in Week 1 based on experience after he posted a 13-3 record as the starter at Notre Dame in 2017 and 2018. But Heupel has also stated that he wants to see more out of the three quarterbacks who are competing for the starting gig. 

Returning players make UCF an AAC favorite once again

Despite losing Milton to injury, the Knights are still one of the most talented teams in the conference and will compete for the AAC title once again.  Indeed, they remain the 2019 conference title favorites.

Running back Greg McCrae is back after rushing for 1,182 yards and scoring 10 touchdowns last season, while Adrian Killins will also be relied on heavily. 

The Knights are returning four of their top five receivers from last season, including big-time players Gabriel Davis and Tre Nixon.

Defense was a weak spot in 2018, but they are returning three of four starters from a strong secondary and are in good hands with defensive coordinator Randy Shannon. 

Knights Have Favorable Schedule

Assessing win totals always require scrutinizing schedules, and UCF has one of the conference’s easiest. They won’t have to play back-to-back road games all year and none of their opponents will face them off a bye.

There are some tough matchups, including facing Stanford and Pittsburgh in Power-Five matchups, and later facing talented Temple and Cincinnati squads on the road.

Pittsburgh lost 45-14 to UFC last season and has to replace two 1,000-yard rushers and four starters on the offensive line. Rod Carey from Northern Illinois replacing  Geoff Collins as Temple’s coach creates some uncertainty around the Owls.

Stanford and Pittsburgh could pose problems for UCF in the early going, especially if the quarterback situation isn’t fully worked out, but UCF has the talent to be considered favorites even in their toughest matchups.

Verdict on UCF’s Win Total

The battle for quarterback will be very important, but I still see plenty of value on taking the over for UCF at 9.0.

The Knights may not win 12 or 13 games again in 2019, but it’s hard to see them regressing below 10 wins.  They’re still the best team on paper in the AAC with key players returning and a favorable schedule.

UCF should be a solid bet for the over at 9.0, especially if Wimbush impresses and fits well in Josh Heupel’s system.