Utah (+290) Has Better Odds to Make 4-Team CFP Than Oregon (+400)
- Oregon and Utah are ranked 6th and 7th, respectively, in the latest College Football Playoff rankings
- The two schools will almost certainly meet in the Pac-12 Championship game in December
- Who is the better bet to make the 4-team College Football Playoff?
The latest edition of the College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night and, once again, the Pac-12 finds itself on the outside looking in. No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Utah are two of the first three teams out (along with No. 5 Alabama), but a lot can happen between now and the second week of December.
In the next 3 weeks:
#2 Ohio St plays #9 Penn St.
#1 LSU plays #4 Georgia.
#6 Oregon will most likely play #7 Utah.
ᶜˡᵉᵐˢᵒⁿ ᶦˢ ᶦⁿ
#8 Oklahoma is going to play #13 Baylor again.
#11 Minnesota will potentially play #2 Ohio St/#9 Penn St.
All before the CFB Playoff?
— CFB Home (@CFBHome) November 18, 2019
Nearly all of college football’s heavyweights will face a top-10 opponent to decide their conference championship, and if teams like Georgia and Oklahoma suffer a second defeat, it’s going to be hard to ignore whoever comes out of the Pac-12.
Odds to Make 2020 College Football Playoff
| Team | Odds to Make CFP | Odds to Miss CFP |
|---|---|---|
| LSU Tigers | -1250 | +800 |
| Clemson Tigers | -1000 | +700 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | -1000 | +700 |
| Georgia Bulldogs | +175 | -210 |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | +280 | -340 |
| Utah Utes | +290 | -350 |
| Oregon Ducks | +400 | -500 |
| Oklahoma Sooners | +400 | -500 |
Odds taken on Nov. 18.
Utah’s current Four-Team Playoff odds are shorter than Oregon’s, despite being ranked one spot lower in the College Football Playoff rankings. The Utes have been destroying teams recently and have allowed three or fewer points in three of their last four games.
The Case For and Against Utah
Since suffering their only defeat of the season versus USC, Utah has outscored its opposition 228-51 en route to six straight victories. They lead the conference in rushing yards per game and QB Tyler Huntley is the Pac-12’s most efficient passer.
On defense, they rank second in the nation versus the run and and top four in yards allowed, yards per play allowed, and points allowed.
A full look at the November 1️⃣9️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings.
Is your team in?
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 20, 2019
They still have some work to do to clinch the Pac-12 South, but remaining games against Arizona and Colorado aren’t too daunting. Their best win is over an Arizona State team that was ranked 17th at the time, but a weak non-conference schedule hurts their standing in the CFP committee’s eyes.
If the Utes can knock off the Ducks, they’ll certainly be in the 4-team playoff discussion; however, they’d probably lose out to both LSU and Georgia if those two SEC powers both finish with one loss.
Is Oregon Playoff Bound?
Oregon is currently the committee’s highest-ranked one-loss team outside of the SEC. Their lone defeat came in the final seconds to a 15th-ranked Auburn team, and all they’ve done since then is win nine straight. They’re 10th in points allowed, second in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, and their quarterback is a future first-round pick.
Rack ’em up. Justin Herbert amasses over 10,000 yards of total offense for his career. #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/eMPZNzIUl6
— GoDucks (@GoDucks) November 17, 2019
They’ve already clinched the Pac-12 North and ESPN FPI gives them an 84% chance to beat both Arizona State and Oregon State down the stretch. Oregon is ranked a spot higher than Utah thanks to a 32-point victory over a USC team that upset the Utes, but they’ll still need to win the Pac-12 and hope LSU holds off Georgia to seriously be considered for the 4-team playoff.
Who’s the Best Bet?
Despite Utah’s dominant six-week stretch, the Ducks are actually a more appealing bet. The Utes non-conference schedule is incredibly weak and even if they win the Pac-12 they could be surpassed by a more talented Oklahoma team. A conference championship coupled with a Georgia loss would give Oregon a great chance at a playoff spot, thanks to a more impressive resume and a better loss than Oklahoma.
As for Alabama, without winning the SEC, it’s hard to imagine them beating out a one-loss Pac-12 or Big 12 champion, especially without Tua Tagovailoa.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
