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College Football Week 8 Upset Pick: Temple vs #19 SMU Will See Owls Beat Another Ranked Opponent

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Updated Apr 4, 2020 · 11:26 AM PDT

The Temple Owls Football team takes the field
Temple is listed as +7.5 road underdogs at No. 19 SMU in Week 8. Can the Owls hand the Mustangs their first loss of the season? Photo by David Flickr) [CC License]
  • Temple is a 7.5-point underdog at No. 19 SMU in Week 8
  • The Mustangs are surprisingly 6-0 to begin the season
  • Temple has won the last two meetings against SMU

The 5-1 Temple Owls are listed as 7.5-point underdogs at undefeated No. 19 SMU in Week 8 (Saturday, Oct. 13th, 3:30 PM ET). The Mustangs have gotten off to a surprising 6-0 start after they rallied from a 21-point deficit for a triple-overtime win against Tulsa in Week 6.

The Owls have one of the best defenses in the nation and matchup well against SMU QB Shane Buechele and the Mustangs offense. Even though the Temple vs. SMU odds are moving slightly in SMU’s favor (opening line was SMU -7), I see the stingy Owls pulling the upset.

Temple vs SMU Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Temple +7.5 (-110) +240 O 59.5 (-110)
SMU (#19) -7.5 (-110) -290 U 59.5 (-110)

*Odds as of 10/16/19.

Temple Has Beat Ranked Teams

Temple already has two wins this season against teams that were ranked in the top 25 at the time of the game. The Owls upset No. 23 Memphis 30-28 in Week 7 after previously upsetting No. 21 Maryland by a 20-17 score on Sept. 24.

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The Owls forced four turnovers against Memphis. Much like Temple’s Week 8 opponent, SMU, Memphis came into the game undefeated (5-0) and was averaging around 40 points per game. SMU comes into this Week 8 tilt with a 6-0 record and an offense averaging 44.2 points per game.

Temple’s two wins against ranked teams both came at Lincoln Financial Field, but they can get the job done on the road. The Owls are 5-3 in road games since 2018 and have a tendency to play up to conference rivals. Temple has won five straight games against AAC opponents.

Owls Defense is Elite

Temple’s defense is allowing just 19 points per game (second in the AAC and tied for 22nd nationally) and is giving up a paltry 325.7 yards per game. They will have their hands full with SMU starting QB Shane Buechele. The Texas transfer ranks 11th nationally with 277.5 passing yards per game and has thrown 12 TD passes with five interceptions.

Despite allowing Memphis to put up 492 yards last week, Temple was able to win the game by taking advantage of four turnovers by the Tigers. Temple forced three fumbles and one interception against talented Memphis QB Brady White and will follow suit against Buechele this week.

The Owls have four defensive linemen — Daniel Archibong,  Zack Mesday,  Quincy Roche and Ifeanyi Maijeh — capable of putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Maijeh leads the conference with six sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss, while Roche has three sacks.

Meanwhile, the Owls secondary has recorded four interceptions and 19 pass breakups this season. This elite defensive group is a big reason why Temple can compete with and beat ranked opponents, regardless of location. Defense travels.

Temple Run Game Will Be Difference

While Temple has a terrific defense, their run game will be the key to winning this game.

QB Anthony Russo is having a strong season and can go toe-to-toe with Buechele, but the Owls will need to have their run game going to win. Temple is averaging 165 yards per game on the ground through six games, with freshman Re’Mahn Davis and redshirt senior Jager Gardner combining for 966 yards on 190 carries and eight touchdowns.

The Mustangs rank 44th nationally in rush defense and will be challenged by Temple’s talented RB tandem. Davis rushed for a career-high 157 yards and a TD against Memphis and has momentum going into SMU. Temple’s rush defense, meanwhile, ranks second in the ACC, limiting their opponents to 126.2 yards per game.

As long as Temple’s defense continues to do its job and shuts down SMU’s top running back, Xavier Jones, the Owls have the tools on offense to pull off the upset.

Bet the Owls

Temple has shown the ability to beat ranked teams this season, and they will continue that trend by upsetting No. 19 SMU in Week 8.

Temple has won the last two meetings, including a 45-20 victory in 2016. The Owls have an elite defense that should frustrate the Mustangs and hand SMU their first loss of the year.

Temple is playing confident football and get up for games against conference opponents. Take the Owls on the moneyline.

Pick: Temple (+240)

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