College Football Week 12 ATS Picks: Bet on Alabama Statement Game vs Miss. State
- Alabama will be looking to make a statement vs Mississippi State on Nov. 16 after losing to LSU
- Ohio State (-52) vs Rutgers is the largest spread in Big Ten history
- Which teams are the best bets against the spread in Week 12?
Week 12 has some interesting betting lines that offer great value.
Alabama looks to bounce back from their loss against LSU when they face Mississippi State this weekend. In Big-Ten action, Ohio State is a whopping 52-point favorite over outmatched Rutgers.
Read below for my three favorite ATS picks for Week 12. All games take place Saturday, Nov. 16th.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama (#4) | -21.5 (-115) | -1900 | O 63.0 (-110) |
| Mississippi State | +21.5 (-105) | +900 | U 63.0 (-110) |
All odds taken Nov. 12
The Alabama vs Miss State odds set Bama as 21.5-point road chalk. Alabama will be looking to make a statement against Mississippi State this week after suffering their first loss of the season to LSU in Week 11 (46-41). The Crimson Tide still have a chance to make the four-team CFP as long as they run the table to close out the regular season.
Alabama has won 11 straight games against Mississippi State, and three of the last four victories have been by more than three touchdowns. The Bulldogs haven’t been able to keep up with Alabama and are outmatched on both sides of the ball.
Mississippi State comes into this game with the 66th-ranked offense and 60th-ranked defense. Alabama ranks eighth in total offense and went toe-to-toe with LSU in the 46-41 loss last week. I like the chances of the Crimson Tide hammering a Bulldogs team that has given up 56 points to Auburn and 49 points to Texas A&M this season.
This spread isn’t what it should be due to Alabama picking up a loss at the hands of an excellent LSU team. They had a great second half against the Tigers and will carry that strong play into Davis Wade Stadium this week.
The Bulldogs have only covered the spread three times this season and are 0-3 ATS as underdogs. I don’t see that trend ending against an Alabama team that needs to put up big numbers to keep its CFP dreams alive.
Pick: Alabama (-21.5)
Ohio State vs Rutgers Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio State (#2) | -52.0 (-110) | — | O 61.0 (-110) |
| Rutgers | +52.0 (-110) | — | U 61.0 (-110) |
The Ohio State vs Rutgers point spread is reportedly the largest spread in Big Ten history. Yet, there’s actually value in betting the Buckeyes to cover when you consider the opponent.
The Scarlet Knights have been the worst team in the Big Ten this season. They are 2-7 overall and 0-6 in conference play, both straight up and against the spread. Ohio State, meanwhile, has been blowing out opponents and is an impressive 8-1 ATS this season.
Ohio State is No. 1 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings.
First time the Buckeyes have ever been No. 1 in the CFP rankings.
— Dan Hope (@Dan_Hope) November 6, 2019
As crazy as it sounds, this spread is likely 10-20 points short of what it should be. Ohio State is averaging 51 points per game this season and have the top-ranked defense in the nation. Rutgers has the fifth-worst offense in FBS and have been shutout by Michigan (52-0) and Iowa (30-0) already.
A good insight into how this game may go is looking at how these teams each performed against Maryland. Heisman-candidate Justin Fields and running back J.K. Dobbins led the Buckeyes to a 73-14 victory over the Terrapins in Week 11. Rutgers, meanwhile, lost their game against Maryland this season by a 48-7 score.
Even without top defensive end Chase Young (suspended), Ohio State is an all-around powerhouse that is capable of winning by 50-plus points for a second consecutive week.
Pick: Ohio State (-52.0)
Florida vs Missouri Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida (#11) | -7.0 (-110) | -260 | O 51.0 (-110) |
| Missouri | +7.0 (-100) | +215 | U 51.0 (-110) |
Missouri picked up a third straight loss when they fell 27-0 to Georgia in Week 11. They’re averaging just seven points per game during this losing streak and now have to face a Florida defense that ranks 14th in the country.
The Gators are coming off an impressive 56-0 victory over Vanderbilt in which they outgained the Commodores 560-128. QB Kyle Trask turned in one of the best performances of his career by going 25-of-37 for 363 yards and three touchdowns.
Florida likely isn’t going to be able to put up those kind of numbers against Missouri, but there’s a good chance they win and cover the spread. The Gators are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games and have scored at least two touchdowns against solid LSU, Auburn and Georgia teams this season.
One of the Tigers best receivers, Albert Okwuegbunam, only has six receptions for 40 yards over the last three games and will likely be shut down again by Florida’s elite defense.
Florida is getting Kelly Bryant back from hamstring injury, but the QB hasn’t taken snaps since he was sacked four times in a loss to Kentucky in Week 9. He also had a shaky outing in the previous outing against Vanderbilt.
Missouri is really struggling and are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Trask and Florida’s offense have proven they can score against good defensive teams and will beat the Tigers by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Florida (-7.0)
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
