West Virginia vs Minnesota Odds, Predictions & Preview – 2021 Guaranteed Rate Bowl

• West Virginia and Minnesota meet in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl
• West Virginia is looking to finish with a winning season while Minnesota is looking to get to nine wins
• Read below for odds, an analysis and best bet
  

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Minnesota (8-4) is set to meet West Virginia (6-6) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl on Tuesday, Dec. 28th. The game will kickoff at 10:15pm and is broadcast on ESPN. You also find national radio coverage on ESPN radio.

The Mountaineers come into this one off the strength of back-to-back conference wins against Texas and Kansas. They managed to steady things after a horrific start to Big 12 play. Minnesota also comes into this one off back-to-back conference wins including a double-digit defeat of #14 Wisconsin. The Gophers may look back at this year as “what could have been”. Three of their four losses coming by one score or less.

West Virginia vs Minnesota Odds

Odds via Fan Duel on December 27th

As I’ve mentioned before, I look a little less at trends for West Virginia vs Minnesota as it’s not as relevant for bowl season. Yet still, a particular one that caught my eye: In its last seven bowl games West Virginia is 0-7 ATS.

Will the postseason slump continue in this one?

Minnesota Defense Holds Big Edge

If the Gophers could have a level of consistency this year then they may have been more of a story in the Big Ten. The one constant they’ve been able to maintain, though, is the defense. Minnesota has an elite unit on that side of the field and it should show up big against West Virginia.

Boye Mafe: 18 total pressures on 3rd & 4th down

Leads all Power 5 players 😤 pic.twitter.com/5U52yKivuT

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College) October 25, 2021

They rank 11th or better in the nation in all these categories: passing yards, rushing yards, total yards, and total passing allowed per game. While all that’s impressive, some of the deeper numbers are what is more relevant to this match-up. West Virginia likes to get it’s rushing attack established then attack through the air. They’ll find that hard to do against Minnesota.

The defense is anchored by DE Boye Mafe. Despite seeing double teams, he’s made many plays in the backfield and has six sacks on the season. The Gophers priority is stopping the run first. Minnesota is 15th in the country in rush success and 22nd in line yards. You don’t push them off the ball, they push you. It’s pretty clear that Minnesota will win the war in the trenches. They’ve done it against a few teams already that have more talent than West Virginia. Can the Mountaineers overcome it?

West Virginia Offense Has Struggled

To answer the question in the previous paragraph, well, I’m not sure they can. The offense for ‘Eers has been the issue all season and for the entirety of the Neal Brown tenure. West Virginia has scored 20 points or less in all its losses and was second to last in touchdowns in the Big 12 on the season.

Fifth-year #WVU quarterback Jarret Doege has only played in one bowl game during his career and he’s looking forward not backwards as he prepares for his next https://t.co/ZqNQlNfcmp

Discuss on The Blue Lot: https://t.co/ZKGxTfSQaZ pic.twitter.com/Ul0J3XAyid

— Keenan Cummings (@rivalskeenan) December 25, 2021

We’ve already talked about how we shouldn’t expect much from West Virginia on the ground. They are going up against an elite unit there that hasn’t given up much of anything to anyone. So where does that leave things? For the Mountaineers, it means they’ll be depending a lot on Quarterback Jarret Doege. Is he capable of doing enough?

Doege finished strongly in the last game of the season. He completed over 70% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns. The caveat? It was against Kansas. The RS Senior is capable of making big-time throws, he’s passed for over 2,900 yards this season. He’s also capable of mistakes. He’s had 11 interceptions this season including three games with many picks.

Doege can definitely do enough to win games but you do wonder what happens if all is thrusted on his shoulders.

West Virginia vs Minnesota Best Bet

You could make the argument for this one to be a blow-out but a few things will stop that from happening. One of those is that Minnesota lacks the explosiveness to put up a lot of points. The other is West Virginia Head Coach Neal Brown traditionally is very good in bowl games. Despite that there is too much for West Virginia to overcome here.

Minnesota is listed as a 5-point favorite, I’ll gladly back that number and would bet it up to 6.5.

• Bet: Minnesota -5 (-110)