2019 Jason Witten Props: Cowboys TE Projected to Catch 3.5 TDs in Return
- Jason Witten is coming out of retirement to rejoin the Dallas Cowboys
- Witten’s targets, receptions and yards per catch declined in each of his last three seasons in Dallas
- Do any of his early 2019 props offer value?
Jason Witten sent shock waves across the football world Thursday, announcing he’s leaving ESPN’s Monday Night Football booth to rejoin the Dallas Cowboys.
Breaking: Jason Witten is returning to the Cowboys after serving one year as a Monday Night Football analyst, the team announced. pic.twitter.com/dVqNbSaoTO
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) February 28, 2019
Witten signed a one-year, $3.5 million contract effectively ending his heavily scrutinized broadcasting career after just one season.
Jason Witten explains his decision to come out of retirement and re-sign with the @dallascowboys ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/WzV5crzbDk
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 28, 2019
Witten’s deal includes an agreement with the Cowboys that he’ll play roughly 25 snaps a game, which is particularly valuable information when trying to dissect his 2019 futures props that were released shortly after his announcement.
Jason Witten 2019 Regular Season Receiving Props
| Prop | Projection | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving TDs | 3.5 | -120 | -120 |
| Receiving Yards | 575 | +100 | -140 |
*All odds taken on 02/28/19
While Witten’s return was met with plenty of optimism by Cowboys fans, it should be noted that his production decreased in each of his last three seasons, culminating in 2017, his worst statistical season since his rookie year in 2003.
The two-time All-Pro caught just 63 passes for 560 yards in 2017, numbers he won’t come close to approaching again if he’s only on the field for 25 snaps per game.
He’s averaged below 10 yards per reception in each season playing with Dak Prescott, and even if we assign him a generous 9.5 yards per reception in 2019, he’d need 61 catches to surpass 575 yards, or one catch every 6.5 snaps if he suits up for all 16 games.
Jason Witten’s Receiving Stats 2015-2017
| Year | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 104 | 77 | 713 | 3 |
| 2016 | 95 | 69 | 673 | 3 |
| 2017 | 87 | 63 | 560 | 5 |
There is little chance he goes over his receiving yards total, but what about his touchdown prop? Witten has had at least four receiving touchdowns in nine of his 15 seasons, including 2017 when he hauled in five scores.
Jason Witten grabs the first touchdown pass of the year for the #Cowboys. #NYGvsDAL (? @NFL) pic.twitter.com/TJNiZOe1Ff
— RealClearSports (@RealClearSports) September 11, 2017
With such a low projected yards per reception, Witten will need to make a big impact in the red zone if he has any chance of reaching four touchdowns.
The problem, though, is Dallas skews much more run-heavy inside their opponent’s 20-yard-line, running at almost a 50% clip. Witten is one of the best blocking tight ends in recent memory, and there’s no guarantee he won’t spent the majority of his 25 snaps per game opening up holes for Zeke.
Even if Jason Witten serves mostly as a blocker, an extra O lineman, he will be valuable. Zeke missed him. Even if he just shields off a safety to make a few 3rd-and-3 catches, Dak will be grateful.
— Skip Bayless (@RealSkipBayless) February 28, 2019
Over the last three seasons, Witten has averaged a touchdown every 26 targets, and even if that number drastically improves in 2019, I just don’t see him getting the volume he needs to score four times.
Odds Witten Plays All 16 Regular Season Games in 2019
| Jason Witten to play all 16 Regular Season games in 2019 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +150 |
| No | -200 |
Witten is the NFL’s ultimate Ironman. In 15 seasons, he missed a grand total of one game, and that was in his rookie season.
Jason Witten missed 1 game in his entire career, due to a broken jaw. Played in 239 games out of 240 #Ironman pic.twitter.com/YGldyks4Ax
— SportsGrind (@SportsGrind) April 27, 2018
Yes, he’s been off for an entire year, but that’s allowed his body to heal any nagging injuries. He was regularly one of the Cowboys’ top conditioned athletes in the offseason program, and the reduced workload should keep him fresh and able to withstand all 16 games.
One of the all-time greats is BACK FOR MORE.
The BEST moments from @JasonWitten‘s illustrious @DallasCowboys career…so far! pic.twitter.com/FhStebAEOd
— NFL (@NFL) February 28, 2019
I’ll fade the over on both of his receiving props, and bet on his durability.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
