Week 12 NFL Picks Against the Spread
- Week 12 of the 2020 NFL season continues Sunday, November 29th
- Our Best Bets were 0-3 in Week 11 (15-18 overall, -4.39 units)
- Read below for analysis on the Week 12 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
Week 12 is off to a fantastic start for us after we swept the two-game turkey day slate, and now we look to carry that momentum over to Sunday’s games.
Last week, we saw number one overall pick Joe Burrow go down with a knee injury, and as a result we’re going to be picking on his replacement.
Brandon Allen will make his fourth career start in place of Burrow for Cincinnati when they face a suddenly surging New York Giants team.
Week 12 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants vs Cincinnati Bengals | NYG (-6) | NYG (-6) | 1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills | BUF (-5) | LAC (+5) | 1 |
| Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars | CLE (-6) | CLE (-6) | 1 |
Odds taken Nov. 26th at FanDuel. See bottom for rest of Week 12 Picks.
The G-Men have won back-to-back games over division rivals Philadelphia and Washington, and need a victory versus the Bengals to keep pace with the Football Team in the NFC East standings.
Pick #1: Giants Beat Up Bengals
New York opened up as a 4.5-point road favorite, but that number has since moved to -6 in light of the news that Allen is starting.
The #Bengals are planning to start QB Brandon Allen on Sunday vs. the #Giants, according to sources. Allen was on the practice squad until the other day when he replaced Joe Burrow on the roster. Ryan Finley, who came in for Burrow against #WashingtonFootball Team, will back up.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) November 25, 2020
The 28-year-old has just three NFL starts on his resume, posting a 1-2 record last season with Denver. The former 6th round pick posted a 3-2 TD-to-INT rate in those outings, completing only 46.4% of his passes, while absorbing nine sacks.
::opens twitter::
Mike Glennon and Brandon Allen are starting Sunday
::closes twitter:: pic.twitter.com/xvwicUs2uv
— Pat Thorman (@Pat_Thorman) November 25, 2020
He was stuck on the practice squad until this week, which shouldn’t inspire much confidence among Bengals fans. To make matters worse, Giovani Bernand is dealing with a concussion meaning Cincinnati could be down to its third string running back Samaje Perine.
Daniel Jones and the Giants meanwhile, are set-up for success against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Bengals rank 21st in points allowed, and generate little pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They rank last in pass rush productivity according to Pro Football Focus, 29th in sack rate and 27th in QB hit rate.
DJ is cookin' 🔥
Daniel Jones' top highlights so far this season! pic.twitter.com/Nhl1tHdpZ9
— New York Giants (@Giants) November 21, 2020
Jones has played turnover free football for the past two weeks, completing 71% of his passes, while chipping in 68 rushing yards and a score on the ground. Wayne Gallman has taken over New York’s backfield, scoring a touchdown in four straight games, and should feast against a Cincy run defense that is allowing 5.24 yards per carry and 146.6 yards per game.
Pick #2: Chargers Surprise Bills
I hesitate to predict an LA Chargers victory this week, since weird things happen in every one of their games, but I do like their chances to keep things close versus Buffalo. The Bills opened up as a 5.5-point favorite, but that number has moved as much as a full point in the Bolts favor depending on which online sportsbook you visit.
This contest has shootout written all over it, as each of the Chargers games since Week 3 has eclipsed 50 points. LA is averaging 31 points per outing over Justin Herbert’s last seven starts, and the breakout star is a now a virtual lock to win Rookie of the Year with Burrow going down last week.
Justin Herbert is ridiculous. What a throw.pic.twitter.com/fp9vNeEoSH
— Adam Rank (@adamrank) November 22, 2020
Buffalo has done an admirable job of shutting down receivers on the boundary, but Keenan Allen should still eat over the middle. The NFL’s leader in targets and receptions, roasted the New York Jets last week for 16 catches, 145 yards and score, and is virtually uncoverable at this point.
Keenan Allen froze ‘em🥶
— PFF (@PFF) November 22, 2020
Buffalo’s offense is no slouch, ranking 11th in points per game, and features formidable weapons on the ground and through the air. Josh Allen has eclipsed 300 passing yards in five of 10 starts, while number one target Stefon Diggs ranks second in receptions and receiving yards.
LA boasts a top-13 coverage and pass rush grade at PFF, and I’m banking on them being able to slow down the Bills enough to keep this game tight.
Pick #3: Browns Blast Jaguars
If there was every any doubts about Jacksonville tanking this season, starting Mike Glennon over a now healthy Gardner Minshew versus Cleveland should put that debate to bed. The 6-foot-7 Glennon hasn’t started an NFL game since 2017, and has failed in multiple cities throughout his career. It’s no wonder the Browns are 6-point favorites.
Nick Chubb tossed that man 😳
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/4fo4r0oFKs
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 22, 2020
Cleveland is by no means a serious contender, but they do excel at one thing. The Browns feature talented running backs in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and will run all over this depleted Jaguars team.
Jacksonville will be without five key starters on defense, which spells trouble against Cleveland’s number one ranked run blocking unit. No team rushes the ball at a higher rate than the Browns, and only two squads average more rushing yards per game. Last week versus Philadelphia, a top-3 run defense, Cleveland still put up 137 yards and a score on 40 carries.
Nick Chubb cleared him with the hurdle!
(via @thecheckdown) pic.twitter.com/J0jnsE7yHz
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) November 22, 2020
The Jaguars are allowing 129.1 rushing yards and 4.3 yards per attempt, numbers that are sure to rise following a date with the Browns.
Week 12 Quick Picks
- Patriots (+1.5) vs Cardinals: Oddsmakers are begging you to take Arizona but don’t bite. This is a must win game for New England, while the Cards are extremely banged up on defense.
- Jets (+7) vs Dolphins: New York has scored as many touchdowns in its last two games (7), as they did in their first eight games.
- Raiders (-3) vs Falcons: Las Vegas is the biggest climber in the DVOA rankings this week, while Atlanta could be without Julio Jones.
- Titans (+3) vs Colts: The line is fair, but it’s tough to sweep teams in the division and Tennessee should be full of confidence after taking out Baltimore.
- Panthers (+3.5) vs Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater returns to Minnesota and upsets his former team.
- Broncos (+6) vs Saints: Denver boasts a top-10 defense and will be more than ready to shut down this Taysom Hill led offense.
- Rams (-6.5) vs 49ers: LA looks like the class of the NFC West right now, while San Fran is still riddled with injuries.
- Buccaneers (+3.5) vs Chiefs: Always scary to go against the champs, but don’t count out angry Brady. Tom is 33-12 ATS after a loss, including 3-0 this season.
- Packers (-9) vs Bears: The answer to who will start for Chicago this week is it doesn’t matter. Green Bay cruises versus one of the worst offenses in the league.
- Eagles (+5) vs Seahawks: If Carson Wentz fails to show up for this game, the cries for Jalen Hurts will finally be too loud to ignore.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
