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Week 3 NFL Picks Against the Spread

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Updated Sep 25, 2020 · 12:41 PM PDT

Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Donald and the Rams have allowed just 36 points in two games this season. Photo by Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire.
  • Our Best Bets were 1-2 in Week 2 (4-2 overall, +1.59 units)
  • The LA Rams are 5-0 in 1 pm games on the East Coast under Sean McVay
  • Read below for analysis on the Week 3 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks

Week 2 in the NFL was one most people would like to forget. Star players were dropping like flies due to injury, wreaking havoc on final scores and ATS wagers.

Like most, we were unable to escape the carnage, losing two of our three best bets. The good news is we’re still in the black for the 2020 season (+1.59 units) and are looking to build our bankroll in Week 3.

Last week we talked about how recency bias would affect how the games would be bet, and already ahead of Week 3 we’re seeing cooler heads prevail. Case in point being the Los Angeles Rams versus Buffalo Bills game.

Buffalo is off to a 2-0 start, but not everyone is buying the hype. Both Bills victories came against perennial AFC bottom feeders (Jets and Dolphins), while the Rams boast impressive wins over the Cowboys and Eagles.

Pick #1: Rams Run Over Bills

Buffalo opened up as a 2.5-point favorite in the Rams vs Bills odds, but that number is already moving in LA’s direction. The Rams are currently 2-point ‘dawgs, but there’s plenty of reason to think this line could get shorter before kickoff.

Rams vs Bills Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Los Angeles Rams +2.0 (-110) +102 Over 47.0 (-110)
Buffalo Bills -2.0 (-110) -120 Under 47.0 (-110)

All odds taken Sept. 24th at FanDuel

After two weeks, LA is Pro Football Focus’ number two overall team behind only Green Bay. Their offense is also ranked second overall, averaging 435.5 yards per game.

By contrast, Buffalo’s first two opponents own the 32nd and 23rd ranked offenses, yet each put up their biggest total of the season against the Bills.

Buffalo also faced the 26th and 29th ranked defenses in Weeks 1 and 2, while LA’s defensive unit ranks ninth. The Rams held the high powered Dallas attack to just 17 points in Week 1, and limited Carson Wentz and Philadelphia to 19 points last Sunday.

Obviously, Josh Allen and the Bills deserve credit for putting up video game like numbers so far, but expectations for them should be kept in check against a defense led by Aaron Donald up front, and Jalen Ramsey on the backend.

West Coast teams travelling East are often viewed as easy prey by square bettors, but LA has thrived in that situation under Sean McVay. The Rams are 5-0 under McVay in 1 pm games on the East Coast, scoring at least 30 points in each contest and outscoring the opposition 185-89.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams +2.0 (-110), 1 unit

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Pick #2: Chargers Tame Panthers

Sticking with California based teams, out next target is the Los Angeles Chargers at home versus the Carolina Panthers. LAC opened up as a 6.5-point favorite in the Panthers vs Chargers odds, and that’s where the line currently sits.

Panthers vs Chargers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Carolina Panthers +6.5 (-110) +235 Over 44.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 (-110) -290 Under 44.0 (-110)

The Chargers will start rookie Justin Herbert for the second straight game, after the team botched an injection to Tyrod Taylor last week, puncturing his lung.

The injury was perhaps a blessing in disguise, as Herbert played very well in his NFL debut, nearly leading LAC to one of the biggest upsets of the season.

Herbert ran for a touchdown and threw another, finishing with 310 passing yards. Taylor has only passed for 300 yards once in 48 career starts, and doesn’t offer the offense the same type of ceiling that Herbert does.

If he’s ever going to hit that ceiling, a game against Carolina will arguably be his best shot. The Panthers have allowed 32.8 points per game and are PFF’s 32nd graded defense. Dating back to last season, they’ve surrendered at least three touchdowns in 14 straight games and have already given up eight touchdowns in 2020.

You know who’s not going to give up three touchdowns on Sunday? Joey Bosa and the Chargers defense. The unit ranks sixth in pressure rate and held the juggernaut Chiefs to just two touchdowns and 23 points last weeks. They won’t have to face Christian McCaffrey, who’s out with a high ankle sprain, and their defensive line owns one of the biggest advantages of the week versus a Carolina offensive line that ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate.

Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 (-110), 1 unit

Pick #3: Washington Surprises Browns

Raise your hand if you’re willing to lay 7.5-points with Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns? I didn’t think so. Cleveland is a big home favorite in the Washington vs Browns odds despite failing to cover in each of its first two games.

Washington vs Browns Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Washington Football Team +7.5 (-115) +275 Over 45.0 (-110)
Cleveland Browns -7.5 (-105) -340 Under 45.0 (-110)

This line was only 4-points prior to Cleveland’s win over Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, yet somehow has been lengthened by more than a field goal. The Browns did look impressive on offense against the Bengals, but this Washington front seven is no joke.

Washington is PFF’s highest graded defense and they own the fifth highest graded pass rush. They’ve racked up a league-high 11 sacks and have already forced four turnovers. By comparison, Cincy’s pass rush ranks 31st and they’ve only forced one turnover. Mayfield is going to be under siege all game, and the last time that happened in Week 1 against Baltimore, Cleveland put up just 6 points.

On the other side of the ball, no one is going to confuse this Washington offense with the 2013 Broncos, but they do have weapons. Terry McLaurin is one of the league’s premier young receivers and Dwayne Haskins has done a great job getting the ball out quickly. Only three quarterbacks have gotten the ball out faster than Haskins this year (2.4 seconds per snap), which will come in handy against an imposing Browns pass rush.

Pick: Washington Football Team +7.5 (-115)

Week 3 Quick Hitters

  • Falcons (-3) vs Bears – After snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Dallas, Atlanta bounces back at home
  • Bengals (+4.5) vs Eagles – Carson Wentz is PFF’s 38th graded QB, while Joe Burrow has impressed in both of his NFL starts
  • Steelers (-4) vs Texans – The league’s best defense overwhelms Houston’s 25th ranked pass blocking unit
  • Patriots (-5.5) vs Raiders – Big-time let down spot for Las Vegas coming off a triumphant Sin City debut over New Orleans. Cam and New England run wild in this one
  • Giants (+3.5) vs 49ers – No team was bitten harder by the injury bug than San Fran, and will likely have to start Nick Mullens in place of Jimmy Garoppolo
  • Titans (-2.5) vs Vikings – Minnesota ranks 31st by PFF’s defensive metrics, while Tennessee owns a top-10 offense
  • Jets (+11.5) vs Colts – Indy is hands down the better team, but laying 11.5-points on a team that lost to Jacksonville is not a wise decision
  • Cowboys (+5) vs Seahawks – Seattle has the league’s worst pass rush, while Dallas’ offense is one the most talented units in football
  • Cardinals (-5.5) vs Lions – Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid attack is operating on all cylinders, while Detroit has allowed 69 points through two games
  • Buccaneers (-6) vs Broncos – Tom Brady vs Jeff Driskel. Advantage Tampa Bay
  • Packers (+3) vs Saints – Green Bay is PFF’s number one offense, while New Orleans just got worked by Derek Carr and Las Vegas
  • Chiefs (+3.5) vs Ravens – To be the champs you have to beat the champs. Patrick Mahomes is 2-0 vs Lamar Jackson in their brief careers
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