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49ers Open as 3-Point Favorites vs Packers in Week 12 Sunday Night Football

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 7, 2020 · 1:03 PM PDT

49ers entering the field
The San Francisco 49ers have opened as a three-point favorite over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football. Photo by Jake Bahn (Wikimedia)
  • The San Francisco 49ers and the Green Bay Packers are currently the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the NFC standings.
  • The 49ers are 4-1 at home this season while the Packers are 3-1 on the road.
  • Both teams have stumbled recently and are each just 1-1 in their last two games.

 

The San Francisco 49ers barely got by the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Now they’ll be back in primetime on Sunday Night Football when they host the Green Bay Packers. The 49ers have opened as a three-point favorite in this spot but are they the right bet in this game or is Green Bay a live dog?

Packers vs 49ers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Green Bay Packers +3 (-110) +145 Over 45.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers -3 (-110) -165 Under 45.5 (-110)

Odds taken Nov. 17

49ers Outlast Cardinals

Though the 49ers have won two of their last three games, all of the contests have been dogfights. The 49ers beat the Cardinals by just three points, then lost to the Seattle Seahawks, then came back home and barely eked out a win over the Cardinals again. The game was far closer than the 36-26 final score would indicate.

Sunday’s win was a big struggle for the 49ers. They had to dig out of a 16-0 deficit to start with and had to score a touchdown with about 30 seconds left to finally earn the win. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had a career-high 424 yards with four touchdowns and two picks.

While they outgained the Cardinals by 216 yards, they again struggled to run the football. It was another mistake-filled effort by the team as they had two turnovers and 10 penalties for 127 yards. Unless they can clean their game up in these areas, they’re going to continue to struggle.

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49ers Running Game Will Dictate

The 49ers entered the week as the No. 2 rushing offense. Much of their success this season has come from the ground game as it’s allowed them to play-action, keep defenses off-balance and to possess the ball. However, they only had 34 rushing yards on Sunday and that’s a problem.

The 49ers are averaging just 74.0 rushing yards per game over their last three contests, which is a steep drop-off from where they were earlier in the year. Prior to those three games, they were averaging 181.1 rushing yards per contest, so this is a steep decline.

The Packers have one of the league’s worst run defenses as they give up 126.9 yards on the ground (25th in the NFL) and have been gashed by far more by good teams. This matchup is likely to tell the story of the game.

Which Way Will The Line Move?

I’m expecting money on the Packers as they’re coming off a bye while the 49ers are banged up and have been struggling the last few weeks. On Sunday, the 49ers played without George Kittle, Matt Breida, Robbie Gould and Emmanuel Sanders wasn’t 100%. They’ve been barely getting by the last few weeks.

I see bettors siding with the Packers here as they’re fresh off a bye week, which is a big deal. They’ll not only be healthier but crisper as the 49ers look like they’re starting to wear down a bit. Aaron Rodgers versus Garoppolo in a primetime matchup is likely to draw Packers money – especially as a dog.

I don’t expect a huge move, though, as the 49ers are at home but I wouldn’t be surprised if it drops to -2.5. If you like the Packers, take them now when you’re getting a full field goal.

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