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Aaron Rodgers’ 2020 NFL MVP Odds Improve to +500 After Week 4, the Third-Best Odds on the Board

Kevin Allen

by Kevin Allen in NFL Football

Updated Oct 6, 2020 · 8:08 AM PDT

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) has passed for 1,214 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first four games to play himself into contention for the MVP award. Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire.
  • Green Bay Packers quarterback (+500) trails only Russell Wilson (+150) and Patrick Mahomes (+250) for best odds in the NFL MVP race
  • Rodgers has won the award twice, the last coming in 2014
  • See the updated NFL MVP odds and our pick to win the award below

Two months short of his 37th birthday,  Aaron Rodgers is showing he’s still among the NFL’s top impact players. The Green Bay Packers quarterback owns the third-best odds (+500) for the Offensive MVP Award after completing 70.5% of his passing attempts for 1,214 yards and 13 touchdowns in the first four weeks.

Seattle’s Russell Wilson (+150) and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (+250) are the two players ahead of him.

Rodgers’ odds were +1400 on September 15, and have steadily improved, After tossing four touchdown passes in a 30-16 win against the Atlanta Falcons Monday, Rodgers moved ahead of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson in the NFL MVP odds.

2020 NFL  MVP Odds

Player (Team) Odds
Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) +150
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs) +250
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) +500
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) +1100
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens) +1400

Odds as of  Oct 6 at DraftKings

Rodgers Tracking Toward One of His Best Seasons

Just a few months after the Green Bay Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers’ likely replacement in Jordan Love, Rodgers is enjoying one of his better NFL starts.

Rodgers is averaging 303.5 yards per game, and the only time he averaged 300 or more per game in a season was 2011. He won the MVP award that season.

Thanks to Rodgers’ 70.5% completion rate, the Packers are moving the ball down the field on the strength of big passing gains. Rodgers is the only NFLer to have five passing completions of 40 or more yards in the first four weeks. He has posted 23 completions of 20 or more yards.  His completion rate this season is well above his 64.7% career completion rate.

Rodgers seems to be sending a message that he is not quite ready to retire.

2020 Rodgers vs Wilson 4-Game Comparison

Aaron Rodgers
VS
Russell Wilson
303.5 Yard per game 321.3
13 TD Passes 16
3 Times Sacked 11
93.2 Quarterback Rating 87.3
0 Interceptions 2
139 Pass Attempts 137
4-0 Record 4-0

Wilson’s Start Among Best in NFL History

Wilson’s 16 touchdown passes tie Peyton Manning’s record for the most TD tosses over the first four weeks of an NHL season. He’s on a pace to throw 64 TD passes. In this recent surge, 11.7% of his passes have gone for a touchdown. Wilson has been a model of efficiency in leading the Seahawks to a 4-0 start.

He’s leading starting quarterbacks with a 75.2% completion rate. That comes with a league-leading 136.7 passer rating.

Wilson has never won the MVP award. And there’s a sentiment around the NFL that he is owed one. Voters are looking for reasons to give him the award, and he is giving them plenty of reasons this season.

Buffalo’s Allen is Darkhorse MVP Candidate

Bills’ quarterback Josh Allen has numbers that compare to those owned by both Wilson and Rodgers. He boasts 12 touchdown passes, and his passing yardage (1,326) is better than Wilson’s and Rodgers’.

Allen’s passer rating (122.7) ranks right behind Rodgers and Wilson. The Bills are also 4-0, meaning Allen is drawing his share of the spotlight.

The Bills’ addition of Stefon Diggs (26 catches, 403 yards) has made Allen even more dangerous. Right now, Allen might be a bigger threat to Wilson and Rodgers than Patrick Mahomes whose production in the first four weeks has been ordinary. But the 2018 MVP is always a factor.

Rodgers is a Good Value Bet

Wilson is playing like he is going to win his first MVP.  But Rodgers’ +500 odds make him an attractive bet. He seems to be on a mission to prove to everyone that he still measures up to quarterbacks in their prime.

Rodgers’ exceptional start has come with his best receiver, Davante Adams, missing two full games and part of another with an injury.

Injuries always impact this award, and that favors Wilson. He has played every game in his nine seasons while Rodgers has been known to pick up injuries.

One factor to consider: the Seahawks are giving up way too many points (27.3 per game). That puts considerable pressure on Wilson to be exceptional every minute he’s on the field. That can wear on you. Given his price, Rodgers is an intriguing bet.

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