Aaron Rodgers Becomes New Favorite in Latest NFL MVP Odds After Week 16
- Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is the -155 favorite to be named MFL MVP with a week left in the regular season
- It’s the first time all season that Rodgers has been the betting favorite to win the award
- Previous favorite Patrick Mahomes saw his odds lengthen to +145 after the Chiefs scraped by the Falcons in Week 16
The saying is that to the steady goes the race, and in the case of the NFL MVP award, Aaron Rodgers has proven to be Mr. Steady all season.
With a week to go in the season, it would that his steadiness is about to pay off in a big way.
For the first time all season, the Green Bay Packers quarterback is the betting favorite to win the NFL MVP. Rodgers is listed at -155 in the NFL MVP odds.
Though he’s never been worse than third in this betting market, Rodgers has always trailed either Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks. His opening line was +2200. Last week, his average betting line was +334.
Mahomes, the previous week’s chalk at -334, saw his odds lengthen to +145.
2020 NFL MVP Odds
| Player (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | -155 |
| Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) | +145 |
| Josh Allen (Bills) | +1400 |
| Davante Adams (Packers) | +5000 |
| Derrick Henry (Titans) | +5000 |
| Russell Wilson (Seahawks) | +10000 |
| Ryan Tannehill (Titans) | +10000 |
Odds as of Dec. 28th at FanDuel
Rodgers was previously named NFL MVP in 2011 and 2014.
Mr Rodgers’ Neighborhood
On a cold, snowy December afternoon at Lambeau Field, Rodgers sliced up the Tennessee Titans defense with pinpoint accuracy. He completed 21-of-25 passes for 231 yards with four touchdowns as the Packers routed the Titans 40-14.
Through 15 games for the 12-3 Packers, Rodgers has thrown 44 touchdown passes while being picked off only five times. He leads all NFL QBs in TD passes, TD pass percentage (8.8), passer rating (119.4), QBR (83.9) and average net yards per attempt (8.7).
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers DOMINATE in the Frozen Tundra 🥶
❄️ 21-25 Comp/Att
❄️ 231 Pass Yds
❄️ 4 TDs pic.twitter.com/ywmfc8Xeas— ESPN (@espn) December 28, 2020
Sunday marked the 11th time in 15 games that he’s thrown for a minimum of three TDs. Rodgers has connected for four scoring passes in six games.
He’s tossed four TDs with no interceptions in five games. When he was picked off Sunday by Tennessee cornerback Malcolm Butler, it marked the first time in five games that Rodgers had turned the ball over.
Mahomes Stumbles
Since Mahomes was the frontrunner, Rodgers was clearly going to need some missteps by the Kansas City QB to open a pathway to the MVP.
Consider that done. Mahomes left the door open an crack and Rodgers stormed through. Sunday, facing the Atlanta Falcons and their 31st-ranked NFL pass defense, Mahomes was limited to 278 yards through the air. He passed for two TDs and was picked off once.
Aaron Rodgers vs Patrick Mahomes
| 12-3 | W-L | 14-1 |
| 44-5 | TD/INT | 38-6 |
| 270.6 | Passing Yardage Per Game | 316.0 |
| 119.4 | Passer Rating | 108.2 |
| 83.9 | QBR | 82.7 |
| 9.4 | Average Yards Per Attempt | 8.9 |
| 70.3 | Completion Percentage | 66.3 |
That was the fourth interception thrown by Mahomes in three games, one shy of the number of picks suffered by Rodgers all season long. While Green Bay has been crushing opponents, Kansas City’s average margin of victory over the past seven weeks is 3.9 points per game.
Mahomes hasn’t passed for four TDs in a game since a Week 9 decision over the Carolina Panthers. His three games of four or more TD passes came against the Panthers, New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens. Only the Ravens don’t rank among the NFL’s worst teams.
Rodgers Is Playing for Something
Perhaps the biggest advantage for Rodgers entering Week 17 is that he’s playing for something on Sunday in the season finale against the Chicago Bears. The Packers must win in order to assure themselves of the #1 seed in the NFC.
Lifetime, Rodgers is 19-5 against Chicago. He’s thrown more TD passes against the Bears (51) than any other team.
Mahomes likely won’t be playing at all on Sunday as the Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers. Kansas City has already clinched top seed in the AFC. The Chiefs can rest their regulars.
Aaron Rodgers this season:
44 TD (1st)
5 INT (1st, min 500 att)
119.4 RTG (1st)
4,059 YDS (5th)
12-3 record (T-2nd) pic.twitter.com/GTpmOqf2ZE— StatMuse (@statmuse) December 28, 2020
Then there’s the supporting cast argument. Rodgers is getting more done with less. Yes, he’s got Davante Adams and Aaron Jones in his arsenal. He’s also throwing to Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Mahomes has the NFL’s most dangerous deep threat (Tyreek Hill) and most productive tight end (Travic Kelce) at his disposal.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) -155.
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
