- New England Patriots continued their slide in the Super Bowl odds with Sunday’s 28-22 loss in Houston
- The loss toppled the Patriots from atop the AFC standings and dumped them to a +400 Super Bowl bet
- Upcoming dates with the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills key to New England’s momentum at the sportsbooks, and its hold on first place in the AFC East
It was a tough weekend for the New England Patriots. A 28-22 loss to the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football has bumped them from the top of the AFC conference standings, and extended slide in their Super Bowl odds, dumping them to a diminished +400 second-favorites.
Odds to Win Super Bowl 54
|New England Patriots||+400|
|New Orleans Saints||+600|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+800|
|Green Bay Packers||+1600|
Odds taken on Dec. 2.
Sputtering Offense Fueling Slide at Sportsbooks
With their offensive struggles becoming apparent in their three previous outings, the Patriots had already begun to slide in the Super Bowl odds entering the weekend.
Still sporting odds as short as +283 coming out of a narrow 17-10 win in Philadelphia two weeks ago, the Patriots were toppled from the top of the odds board after narrowly eking out a 13-9 win in Dallas in Week 12, slipping to +325 as the Baltimore Ravens overtook them to emerge as narrow +275 chalk.
Tom Brady in the first 7 drives vs. Texans:
30 passer rating
3.6 yards per pass
— FOX Sports (@FOXSports) December 2, 2019
And with Sunday’s results, the delta has widened further. While the Patriots stumbled in Houston, the Ravens rose to the occasion in arguably their most important contest of the season, knocking off the NFC-leading San Francisco 49ers by a 20-17 score, and now sit atop the AFC seeds and rapidly improving as +275 Super Bowl favorites.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 1, 2019
New England racked up 31.25 points per game while steamrolling to an 8-0 SU start against largely inferior competition, but have averaged just 18 points per game during the four-game run that started in Week 9 with a lopsided 37-20 loss to the Ravens as 3-point road chalk.
The league’s highest-scoring team in the early going of the season, the Patriots have struggled to generate offense during their current 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS run. New England racked up 31.25 points per game while steamrolling to an 8-0 SU start against largely inferior competition, but have averaged just 18 points per game during the four-game run that started in Week 9 with a lopsided 37-20 loss to the Ravens as 3-point road chalk.
Brady Searching for Answers Ahead of Date with KC
Those struggles were on full display early on Sunday night as Patriots quarterback Tom Brady set a career-low by connecting on just seven of 19 pass attempts in the first half, generating just 82 yards and a mere three points. Brady would finish the night with 326 passing yards and three touchdowns, but much of that production came in garbage time after the Texans had marched to a three-score lead.
From @ESPNStatsInfo: 7-of-19 (.368) matches the lowest completion % in a 1st half in Tom Brady's career (minimum 15 attempts). He's been exactly 7-of-19 two other times prior to tonight, and the Patriots have rallied from halftime deficits to win both of those games.
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) December 2, 2019
Things will get no easier for Brady and the Patriots in next week’s date with the high-powered Kansas City Chiefs.
New England has opened as 3.5-point home favorites in next Sunday’s date with the Chiefs at Gillette Stadium, and will likely have to lean heavily on defense to keep pace with Kansas City, which is coming off a lopsided 40-9 win over Oakland as 11-point home chalk.
All three phases played their A-game ✊ pic.twitter.com/eyYOBMd4HT
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 2, 2019
The Patriots defense has been the bright spot during the team’s otherwise middling run, surrendering just 192 passing yards per game over their past four outings, and continues to be ranked second in the NFL. But with a narrow one-game lead over the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East standings, New England must quickly find an answer to its offensive woes.
Dates with Chiefs, Bills Potentially Season Defining
While a win in next week’s date with the Chiefs is far from assured, the Patriots can take temporary comfort in watching their two chief rivals battle it out next weekend as the Bills host Baltimore as 6-point underdogs. In addition, dates with the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively, are sure to keep the NFL schedule makers on the Patriots’ Christmas card list.
AFC East standings thru week 13.
The #Bills defeated the @dallascowboys to improve to 9-3. With the win the Bills hold a 2 game lead in the AFC for a Wild Card spot. @AFCEast #AFC #BuffaloBills #BUFvsDAL #ColdFrontReport #GoBills pic.twitter.com/ukGvJwKGPt
— Cold Front Report (@ColdFrontReport) December 2, 2019
But without a dramatic turnaround in the team’s play with the ball over the next two weeks, or a sudden collapse by the Ravens, who have now won eight in a row, New England may have more to worry about than making up for rapidly lost ground on the Super Bowl odds.
A loss to Chiefs will likely further erode New England’s position in NFL futures, regardless of who wins in next week’s Ravens/Bills matchup. And even with a win over Kansas City, a return to the top of the Super Bowl odds is far from assured.
Indeed, the Patriots’ decade-long grasp on first place in the AFC East could be on the line in Week 16, when they host Buffalo. The Bills have emerged as a legitimate threat to New England’s supremacy during an impressive three-win SU win streak, leaving them as an intriguing bet to claim their first division crown since 1995, pegged at +700 in the AFC East odds.
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