Andrew Luck Favored to Record Most Passing Yards in Wild Card Weekend

• The NFL Wild Card Playoffs begin this weekend  (January 5th)
• Andrew Luck of the Indianapolis Colts is favored to throw for the most yards of any QB this weekend
• Is he the best bet or is there more value elsewhere?

The NFL Wild Card Playoffs kickoff on Saturday, January 5th with four games this weekend.

Colts QB Andrew Luck gets the weekend started in a matchup with the Texans. Luck is currently the favorite to record the most passing yards this week.

Odds To Record Most Passing Yards In Wild Card Weekend

*Odds taken Jan 2

Luck Gets a Great Matchup

Of the eight teams playing this weekend in the Wild Card Playoffs, Luck will have the luxury of facing one of the worst pass defenses.

The Texans rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game. The only other Wild Card team to rank lower are the Eagles at 30th.

These teams met twice this season with the Texans winning 37-34 in overtime at Indy, while the Colts won 24-21 in Houston. Luck threw for 464 and 399 in those games, respectively, while attempting 103 passes combined.

Most passing yards, single 2018 game #NFL

1. Patrick Mahomes, KC @ LAR, 478
2. Nick Foles, PHI vs HOU, 471
3. Jared Goff, LA vs MIN, 465
4. Andrew Luck, IND vs HOU, 464
5. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT @ DEN, 462

— Quarterback Tracker (@qbtracker) December 31, 2018

On the season Luck finished with the fifth-most passing yards at 4,593. Only he and the Eagles’ Nick Foles rank top ten in YPG among QBs playing in the Wild Card.

Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson also saw success this season against the Colts with 375 passing yards in the first meeting and 267 in the second.

Three of Four Games Feature Rematches

If earlier matchups are any indication of what we should expect this weekend, then you should likely steer clear of either Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson. The Cowboys and Seahawks played back in Week 3, a 24-13 win for Seattle.

"As good as these QBs will be, it's going to be about the running game."@Nate13Burleson says whoever controls the ground will come out on top in Dallas.#Seahawks vs. #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/9NiQIkdRAa

— GMFB (@gmfb) December 31, 2018

In that game Prescott threw for only 168 yards, while Wilson was only marginally better with 192.

The Seahawks are the league’s top rushing team, while the Cowboys have the league’s leading rusher. Expect a heavy dose of running in this matchup.

You don’t have to stretch your memory too far to remember another rematch on the card. The Ravens and Chargers played as recent as two weeks back.

Lamar Jackson did throw for a career-high in that game, but it was still only 204 yards.

Jackson’s average passing yards for the season are skewed based on his limited use in the passing game prior to Joe Flacco’s injury.

However, for a quarterback who’s only exceeded 200 passing yards once this season, his long odds seem justified.

Jackson’s average yards through the air in seven games since taking the starting role are more respectable than the chart below, yet still only 159.1.

QB Avg Passing Yards vs Opponent Avg Passing Yards Allowed

Rivers actually had an even worse day through the air in this matchup, throwing for only 181 yards and two interceptions. Rivers could struggle again against the Ravens’ fifth-ranked pass defense.

Eric Weddle on facing the #Chargers for the second time in three weeks: pic.twitter.com/w17HLX8XXN

— Sean Grogan (@Sean_CecilWhig) January 2, 2019

Bet On Another Big Game From Luck

Only two quarterbacks playing this weekend rank in the top 20 for most passing attempts per game. Luck and Foles are virtually tied, with Luck at 39.9 and Foles at 39.0. Prescott is next on the list at 22nd with 32.9.

Foles will be facing a much tougher matchup against a Bears defense ranked seventh vs the pass, and who’s allowed only 210.6 YPG through the air their past five games.

Andrew Luck is PFT's choice for comeback player of the year https://t.co/TuqjDdDuCt

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) January 2, 2019

Considering Luck threw a total of 863 yards this season against Houston already, he looks to be the best bet.

Best Bet: Andrew Luck +300