Antonio Brown 2019 Receiving Props After Trade to Raiders
- Antonio Brown has had at least 1,200 receiving yards in six straight seasons
- The Oakland Raiders haven’t had a receiver top the 1,200-yard mark since Jerry Rice in 2002
- Derek Carr had a career-best 4,049 passing yards last season
The Oakland Raiders made a splash on Saturday night when they acquired star wideout Antonio Brown from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a third- and fifth-round pick.
In posted props on how the superstar wideout will perform with his new team and it makes plenty of sense to be bullish on those lines.
2019 Antonio Brown Receiving Props
| Prop | Projection | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards 2019 Regular Season | 1100.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Receptions 2019 Regular Season | 95.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Receiving Touchdowns 2019 Regular Season | 9.0 | -115 | -115 |
*All odds taken March 10
Antonio Brown Regular Season Receiving Yards
The over-under for Brown’s receiving yards is set at 1,100.5.
While it might seem like a low bar for a player that’s topped the 1,200-yard mark in six straight seasons, keep in mind that the Raiders haven’t had someone surpass 1,200 yards since 2002 (Jerry Rice).
The challenge here is that we don’t know what the Raiders offense will look like as a finished product. This unit just got a huge boost but they also have four draft picks among the first 35 selections of the 2019 NFL Draft.
On top of that, there are rumors they want to sign Le’Veon Bell.
The very first play of @AB84’s NFL career?
A touchdown.
(Sept. 19, 2010) @steelers pic.twitter.com/X7AvZWo73U
— NFL Throwback (@nflthrowback) March 9, 2019
Without any additional assistance, Brown would be a good bet to go over this number. As the Raiders add more pieces to this pie, it should only be easier for a determined and hungry Brown to reach at least 1,101 yards.
Antonio Brown Regular Season Receptions
Derek Carr is the other part of this equation, as Brown can’t do it all himself. There is some concern as to whether Carr is, in fact, a franchise quarterback or if is he the passer who was much-maligned last season and barely made it to 4,049 passing yards (a career high).
Carr was probably criticized far too much last season as his offensive line and weaponry was awful.
He was sacked 51 times, which tied him for the third-most in the NFL. The Raiders running game churned out a paltry 101.8 rushing yards per game, which was 25th in the NFL. It’s clear he had little help.
Route Depth: Where Antonio Brown was targeted most often vs where Derek Carr targets his receivers most often pic.twitter.com/1poGI8gkwd
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) March 10, 2019
Brown will change that as he is a reception machine. Most analytics show this duo will be a great match.
Taking a look at last year’s stats, the Raiders leading receiver was Jared Cook and he had 101 targets. When you also note that Jordy Nelson, Jalen Richard and Seth Roberts saw a combined 233 targets, many of those will go to Brown.
When you also note that Jordy Nelson, Jalen Richard and Seth Roberts saw a combined 233 targets, many of those will go to Brown.
The last part of the equation to figure here is game flow. The Raiders still aren’t a very good team and while their offense is improved, their defense is still terrible.
They’ll probably be playing from behind a lot or find themselves locked into shootouts. Both of those scenarios will help AB get over the 95.5 receptions.
Antonio Brown Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns
Touchdowns is the trickiest of the three props here, as they are often hard to handicap for wide receivers. Brown led the league with 15 receiving TDs, but that was in a different system. Will that carry over to Oakland?
Antonio Brown is heading to Oakland, @AdamSchefter reports.
Last season, Raiders receivers ranked near the bottom league-wide in yards, touchdowns and yards per reception.
Brown had 6 more TDs than Oakland WRs combined. pic.twitter.com/hLvkAVFB39
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 10, 2019
The Raiders ran the ball quite a bit in the red zone as Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington and Derek Carr combined for 66 rushing attempts. That was the 10th-highest red zone rushing rate.
Brown is a threat to score from any area on the field – not just the red zone – but of the three props, this is the one I’d be least bullish on. I’d either pass or bet the under.
Odds Brown Leads the NFL in Yards and/or Receptions
| What 2019 NFL Regular Season Receiving Categories Will Antonio Brown Lead? | Odds |
|---|---|
| Neither Receiving Yards Or Receptions | -3000 |
| Receptions Only | +550 |
| Receiving Yards Only | +600 |
| Both Receiving Yards And Receptions | +2500 |
Will Brown Lead The League In Yards Or Receptions?
This prop focuses on whether Brown will lead the league in any categories. We’re talking about a player who led the league in receiving touchdowns last season, led the league in receiving yards in 2017, tied for the league lead in receptions in 2015 and placed second in that category in 2016.
This is officially Antonio Brown’s final touchdown, catch and game as a Steeler pic.twitter.com/65DNLEKeEB
— Fire Kevin Colbert (@jamessconner) March 10, 2019
On one hand, this prop lets you bet on a receiver that should be very hungry and motivated. On the other hand, it’s a tough prop to handicap as you’re not only betting on things going great with Brown, Carr and the Raiders, but also that he beats the other receivers in the league in this category.
‘Neither’ feels like the safest bet here but with the juice, I would pass.
For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.
