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Bears vs Rams Week 11 SNF Props: Goff’s Struggles Continue

Nick Ferris

by Nick Ferris in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 12:55 PM PDT

Jared Goff walking to the locker room
With more injuries to the offensive line, Jared Goff's struggles will continue against the Bears. Photo by Jeffrey Beall (flickr) [CC License].
  • Week 11 SNF matchup sees the (4-5) Chicago Bears take on the (5-4) Los Angeles Rams
  • A loss for either team will be detrimental to their playoff hopes
  • Week 10 could have been a huge week – instead I will have to settle for a profit of +1.08 units on the week, bringing the season total to -5.43 units

Some questionable play calling for the Cowboys at the end of the SNF Week 10 matchup thwarted any hopes of a season changing week for me, but it was close and I ended up with my third week in a row finishing in the black. As I inch closer and closer to the break even mark on the season let’s have a look at three props of interest for Week 11’s SNF matchup between the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams.

Prop #1: Margin of Victory

Win/Margin Odds
Rams/1-13 +138
Rams/14+ +220
Bears/1-13 +281
Bears/14+ +736

All odds taken Nov. 16

After starting the season 3-1 the Bears have struggled, going 1-4 in the following five games and come into this Week 11 game at 4-5 and clinging to their playoff hopes. After losing four straight the Bears got a big W last week beating the Jeff Driskel-led Detroit Lions. Their offense has been bad all year behind an o-line that has struggled to get footing in both the run and pass game.

The defensive injuries are also starting to pile up, after losing Akiem Hicks a few weeks ago and Danny Trevathan last week. But the Bears remain solid on that side of the ball, with superstar Khalil Mack leading the way. The Bears rank in the top half of the league in just about every major defensive statistical category. However, the leagues 29th-ranked offense has just been too much to overcome at times this season.

Head-to-Head

Bears
VS
Rams
29th Total Yards per Game 12th
28th Rush Yards per Game t20th
30th Pass Yards per Game 6th
27th Points Per Game 10th
9th Total Yards Allowed per Game 12th
9th Rush Yards Allowed per Game t5th
15th Pass Yards Allowed per Game 17th
4th Points Allowed per Game t15th

For as bad as Mitch Tribisky has been (85.2 passer rating), Jared Goff (82.7) has been worse. After averaging over 30 points per game in 2018, the Rams offense that looked unstoppable has been nowhere to be seen in 2019. While their 25.1 points per game average is still good for 10th in the league, they have struggled to find consistency and an identity behind an underperforming offensive line.

Last week wasn’t kind to the Rams as their already-depleted offensive line lost two more starters, RT Rob Havenstien and C Brian Allen. Add in deep threat Brandin Cooks (still out with a concussion) and Todd Gurley’s maintenance routine and the Rams may struggle to move the ball against a tough Bears defensive front.

Pick: Bears win 1-13 (+281)
Risk: 1 unit to win 2.81 units

Prop #2: Jared Goff Over/Under 260.5 Passing Yards

Passing Yards  Odds
Over 260.5 -114
Under 260.5 -114

Goff’s struggles have been evident all year, as he has not looked like the same QB who held a 32:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2018. He holds an 11:9 ratio so far in 2019 and has completed almost 5% less of his passes. He put up a meager 78 yards back in Week 6 against the 49ers and has failed to impress against the Steelers and Panthers as well. He has had his yardage total inflated by picking on the lesser pass defenses, putting up 517 yards versus the Bucs (last in the NFL in pass defense), 395 yards against the Seahawks (27th) and 372 yards against the Bengals (22nd).


Goff has cleared the 260 yards passing mark in six of the Rams nine games thus far,l but only in two of the last four. With the Rams aforementioned offensive line injuries and down reliable deep threat Brandin Cooks, Goff will continue to struggle against a Bears pass rush led by Mack and a corner group headed by talented CB Kyle Fuller.

Pick: Goff under 260.5 passing yards
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units

Prop #3: Longest Touchdown Over/Under 39.5 Yards

Longest Touchdown Odds
Over 39.5 Yards -120
Under 39.5 Yards -109

Sometimes you find a bet that feels like a gimmie and want to go all in. You have to remember nothing is a guarantee when you are gambling. Having said that, taking a closer look at the 39.5 yard touchdown line still seems too easy.

The Bears and Rams have combined for exactly two touchdowns 40 yards or longer. The Rams have a 65-yard Cooper Kupp receiving TD and the Bears have a 102-yard kick return TD. The next two longest touchdowns come via interception returns, the Rams with a 32-yard pick-six and the Bears with a 37-yard pick-six.

With the way Goff and Tribisky are playing, I am more concerned with a long defensive return for a TD than a big offensive play. The Rams have only three offensive touchdowns all year that have went for more then 15 yards, while the Bears have only two, and both came last week against the Detroit Lions and their 30th-ranked defense.

With the lack of offensive explosiveness fielded in this game, I will be surprised to see a play of over 40 yards, never mind an offensive TD. Let’s hope none of the defensive stars put a snag in the plans.

Pick: Longest TD under 39.5 yards
Risk: 3 units to win 2.75 units

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