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Bengals’ Win Total Remains at 6 After AJ Green Injury; Is the Under a Good Bet?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 3:58 PM PDT

AJ Green at Bengals practise.
The Cincinnati Bengals regular season win total still sits at 6.0 after the A.J. Green injury. Photo By Navin75 (Flickr) [CC License]
  • The Cincinnati Bengals were 6-10 last season
  • A.J. Green has injured his ankle and will be out six-to-eight weeks
  • The Bengals don’t have a ton of depth, but if no one else gets hurt, should win at least six games this season

The Cincinnati Bengals’ regular season started out low at just 6.0 games. When news broke that the team lost start wide receiver A.J. Green for the next six-to-eight weeks, many expected it to get lower. But the oddsmakers are standing pat on Cincinnati’s NFL regular-season win total, keeping it right at 6.0.

Is there value on the under in this spot?

2019 Cincinnati Bengals NFL Win Total

Team NFL Win Total Over Odds Under Odds
Cincinnati Bengals 6 -125 -105

*Odds as of July 30, 2019.

Green Injures Ankle

There have been differing reports with Green’s injury, which he suffered at the beginning of training camp. Some reporters have suggested that he’s in fact torn ligaments in his ankle and might go for surgery. Other reports have suggested that it’s merely a low-ankle sprain.

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The worst timetable we’ve heard is that he’ll be out eight weeks, which probably means that he misses the first two weeks of the regular season. However, Bengals.com insider Geoff Hobson – one of the most plugged-in team reporters – suggests that he’ll only be out four weeks.

Green joins 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams on the sideline. Williams was expected to provide a big boost to a bad offensive line, but won’t contribute anything in year one thanks to a season-ending shoulder injury.

Green Loss Will Impact Win Total

If the Bengals were visiting the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams in Weeks 1 and 2, I’d say that the loss of Green probably doesn’t impact their total much. They’d be big underdogs in both contests and would probably lose with or without their All-Pro receiver.

However, the Bengals go to Seattle and host San Francisco in the first two weeks.

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The Bengals probably lose at Seattle with Green, but they’re capable of beating San Francisco at home when fully healthy. Th injury takes a bite out of those chances. Even in Week 3, the Bengals visit the Bills, which won’t be an easy contest. It’ll be tougher without Green in the lineup.

Bengals Don’t Have A Lot Of Depth At Wide Receiver

When you start to wonder just how well the Bengals can handle Green’s injury, we have to start with a look at the depth chart. Unfortunately, they have very little depth at the position. Former first-round pick and borderline bust John Ross is also hurt. That leaves just Tyler Boyd, Cody Core and Alex Erickson.

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Even at tight end, the Bengals are thin as they’re going into the season with the oft-injured Tyler Eifert as their starter.

The loss of Green will have a significant impact on the offense. Remember, this team played seven games without Green last season and finished 24th in passing offense, although they were also missing Andy Dalton for a chunk of the season.

Six Is Already A Low Number; Bet Over

The issue with the oddsmakers moving the number is that 6.0 is already a low number. Almost everything went wrong for the Bengals last season and they still won six games. They missed Dalton for six games, Green for seven, and lost Eifert for 13. They lost a lot off their defense, too, and ended up firing head coach Marvin Lewis as well.

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The Bengals actually started the 2018 season 4-1 when they were healthy and then nosedived after that. I actually think the Bengals are somewhat underrated heading into this season as they’re not great, but they’re not awful either. Dalton is a decent quarterback, Joe Mixon could be a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and Green is a stud.

Once they get Green back, this will be a decent offense – especially if Boyd and Eifert can contribute. On defense, Geno Atkins is one of the best interior lineman and the team has talent in the secondary with Dre Kirkpatrick and William Jackson III. The linebacking corps is weak, the depth is thin all the way around, but there is talent.

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I actually see the Bengals being one of the surprise teams in 2019 in the sense that they won’t be horrendous. This isn’t the cast of a 4-12 team. It’s more like 6-10, 7-9 or 8-8. Even if they lose the first two weeks, they can beat Arizona, Jacksonville, the New York Jets – each of whom they host – and the Miami Dolphins.

They can also steal two wins in the division (2-4), which gets them to six wins. And if they can win at Oakland or beat San Francisco at home, this team gets to the over. I like them to push at the very least, so bet the over.

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