Betting Public Souring on Bills and Lions in 2018 Win Totals

• Bettors have been less than inspired with the offseason moves of Buffalo and Detroit, causing their 2018 Season Win Totals to take a hit
• With new QBs and one of the league’s tougher schedules, Buffalo’s stock is at an all-time low
• Can new Head Coach Matt Patricia bring some of New England’s winning ways to the Motor City?
  

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After giving bettors a couple months to make their decisions on 2018 NFL season win totals, we’ve taken a look to see how the odds have changed for all 32 teams. While there is optimism for certain teams, the betting public has shown little faith in the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills.

Bettors Not Expecting Much From Bills

What was one of the best things the Bills did last year? Protect the football. QB Tyrod Taylor had a lot to do with that, only throwing four interceptions all season. The team as a whole was consistently winning the turnover battle as well, ranking seventh overall in turnover differential.

Repeating that success could be tough with Taylor now playing in Cleveland. Bettors seem to be agreeing as Buffalo’s season win total has been on a steady decline since opening. Opening totals of 6.5 wins across most online sports betting sites has now dropped mostly to 6s, with substantial juice still on the UNDER.

Buffalo Bills 2018 Win Total

Even when things were going well for the Bills in their 9-7 season, their margins for error were razor thin. Of their nine wins, six were decided by one score. However, in their seven losses, five were blowouts. Those five losses came by 13, 37, 30, 20 and 21 points.

Bills Offseason and Schedule

With Taylor gone, the team looks to former Cincinnati backup AJ McCarron to lead the team at QB. McCarron has yet to impress in camp, though, and is likely no more than a stopgap until prized first-round draft pick Josh Allen is ready to see action.

When their 31st-ranked passing game was struggling last year (most weeks), the team was able to lean on RB LeSean McCoy who finished fourth in rush yards. McCoy is now 30-years-old and is embroiled in legal issues stemming from an ex-girlfriend claiming he was involved in a home invasion and assault on her. Should the allegations prove true, the Bills could be minus their star running back as well.

Regardless of who is running out of the backfield, churning out yards may be tough behind an offensive line which lost three of five members in the offseason.

The schedule makers did Buffalo no favors in awarding them what shapes out to be the 11th-toughest schedule based on their opponents’ opening projected win totals. In the opening eight weeks they only face one team projected to have a sub-500 record.

That one team is the Indianapolis Colts and their low total between 6.5-7 had a lot to do with the uncertainty around Andrew Luck’s recovery from injury. It now looks like Luck should be ready to start. They also play five of their first seven games on the road.

Bills’ Key 2018 Additions/Departures

Lions Need to Adjust to New Coach

After back-to-back 9-7 seasons, bettors are foreseeing a year of regression for the Detroit Lions. Early win total postings of 7.5-8 have taken some early UNDER money, with 8s now off the board and even 7 now available.

Despite the last two winning seasons and being known as a player’s coach, Jim Caldwell was let go. Matt Patricia, a sought-after coaching prospect from New England, was brought in to be his replacement.

While Patricia has championship pedigree from his defensive coordinator days with the Pats, his style has not gone over well with players so far. Punishing players with running drills during minicamp was not taken positively with his mostly veteran-laden team.

Detroit Lions Win Total

The Lions ranked a dismal 27th on defense last year in yards/game. Want to know who ranked worse? Matt Patricia’s unit with New England was 29th.

Lions Offseason and Schedule

A lot of pieces came and went this offseason. The offense will have a new wrinkle to it with Super Bowl winner LeGarrette Blount coming over from Philadelphia. The Lions will be hoping Blount can help improve their 32nd-ranked rushing attack from 2017. Blount has been a productive back for the last number of years but is now into his 30s and his impact may be very limited.

With QB Matthew Stafford under center Detroit will always have a chance. But bettors may not be confident he’ll have enough time to make plays. The 12 different offensive line combinations used last year led to Detroit being the seventh-most sacked team with 47 sacks allowed.

Coming 🔜 to a field near you.

🎥 @LG_Blount https://t.co/Rye0bJfLBF

— Detroit Lions (@Lions) March 20, 2018

The Bills may have a tough schedule, but the Lions are one of the few teams who would gladly switch places with them. Based on opening season projected win totals, Detroit has the seventh-hardest strength of schedule in the entire league.

To begin the year they’ll host the New York Jets, but then hit the road to face San Francisco (8.5 average projected wins), are home to New England (11), on the road to Dallas (8.5) and back home to Green Bay (10).

Lions’ Key 2018 Additions/Departures

The NFC North should also be an extremely competitive division with Minnesota as Super Bowl contenders, Green Bay expecting the same with the return of Aaron Rodgers from injury, and Chicago expecting to be improved offensively in QB Mitchell Trubisky’s second season. Should the Lions still be in contention come the end of the season, they will finish with three of four games on the road.